- Microsoft swat teams pounce on customers threatening to move to Open Source. If customer plays hard ball - they get free licenses.
- Extorting Microsoft for free licenses becomes popular sport. Moves on to hardware subsidies, because "our current servers can't run .NET server, but they can run Linux".
- Trade rags start openly speculating about "Who squeezed how much out of Microsoft".
- That $40 Billion starts to dwindle.
- Microsoft changes policy - no more free licenses. Companies caught in the middle of free license negotiations are forced to actually go ahead with the Open Source conversion.
- Forced OSS conversions prove successful and economical.
- That $40 Billion continues to dwindle.
- Microsoft stock hits the skids, holders of stock options cash in, and the $40 Billion is gone.