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New perhaps,perhaps,perhaps
The way I see it, the current 64 bit chip makers are too used to fat margins to ever make a volume play. Perhaps one will prove me wrong but right now most appear to be too good a rolling over and playing dead with the approach of the itanic. Thus, I see two paths to nothingness for the itanium.

1) x86-64. The least "painful" path. Everyone gets a "free" backwards compatible upgrade to 64bit. The big downside: it's still x86, just with still more complexity tacked on.

2) embedded assension. Just as intel is using dominance in the desktop to lay seige to high end servers, I can see Intel getting so attached to fat margins that it falls victim to the same play from the embedded world. The risc embedded processors are designed to be everything itanium isn't: simple and efficient.

Perhaps I'm dreaming too much, but I hope for something more power efficient than the itanium ( and to a lesser extent x86 ) to emerge. With the way itanium is going, air cooling soon won't be enough. The costs and hassles of a water cooled computer are not something I look forward to.

Dave "LordBeatnik"
New X86-64 for masses, 64-bit RISC & Itanic/Alpha for servers
Intel loves its margin on server chips, too. Check out Itanic prices, and Xeon prices versus desktop P3/P4 prices.

AMD seems a lot more interested in the volume market. I think the desktop market will most likely go x86-64; for one, the Itanic will simply cost too much (die size, heat, and p/s issues).

I don't think the current RISC server chips (SPARC, PowerPC/RS6000) will come down much in price -- or will have problems staying ahead of Itanic at least until Intel merges in Alpha technology.

And, I don't think you're going to see embedded 64-bit chips (e.g. MIPS) have an impact in the desktop market -- unless Linux really takes off in the desktop. Windows ain't going to run on them.

Basically, the PC business is pretty boring now and the excitement is in other areas. I'm more interested in the lastest DSP's than the latest Athlons.

Tony
     Itanium SpecInt Benchmarks at TheReg - (Another Scott) - (10)
         'Bout what I've been hearing. - (inthane-chan) - (8)
             You're being too kind - (lordbeatnik) - (6)
                 130 Watts at 800 MHz. It's a nice heater... - (Another Scott) - (1)
                     We make many jokes about its spaceheater ability - (lordbeatnik)
                 Itanium *has* competition - (ben_tilly) - (3)
                     Certes. - (static)
                     perhaps,perhaps,perhaps - (lordbeatnik) - (1)
                         X86-64 for masses, 64-bit RISC & Itanic/Alpha for servers - (tonytib)
             No, it'll suck until 2005 or so....that's when Intel will - (tonytib)
         Rumblings about Intel X86-64 at The Inquirer. - (Another Scott)

I am LRPD, DESTROYER OF EVIL!
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