Opec has tended to go up and down WRT compliance and prices.

I don't see anything which suggests a longer-term trend away from OPEC.

The possible exception is that when prices are high, more nations exploit their reserves, putting more producers into the market, making it harder to control.

But, when things break apart, the oil infrastructure tends to rot or become out-dated for those marginalized producers, giving OPEC another opportunity to jack up prices again.

IOW, the cycle is perhaps due to the time it takes for marginal producers to ramp up production to undercut OPEC.

Lets hope the government stocks up on lots of oil or requires national companies to stock up more this time. It is almost a given that prices will go sky high again one of these days.......And tax the heck out of non-biz SUV's.