https://youtu.be/161Mcqh733g?si=lqUNflqJgAfEdq15

Ignore the title and the incursion. Go to 13 minutes in.

Russia had a 20% loss of refinery capability from drone attacks in the past week. This cuts into domestic fuel quantities. This also means it will cut into their food production because it costs a shitload of fuel to run those tractors and fertilizer is a byproduct of petroleum refining.

They no longer have enough to export even if they could get someone to buy it. So that income is about to evaporate.

They used Western technology and Western expertise to build these refineries and it will be next to impossible for them to fix them. And Ukraine will keep on blowing them up.

When they get to the refineries that service the Siberian oil fields that means they have to stop pumping. Once the pumping stops it will freeze over and they will not be able to restart those pumps.

This might be a war turning point. Hell, this might simply be the ending point of Russia as a country once the fuel is gone along with all that income.

I think it's closer to the edge though. They cannot afford to lose refined products right now. It's so tight it is illegal for them to export gasoline. So at this point the demand is the same but the supply is tightening and the prices are going up.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20Feb%2027%20(Reuters),world's%20second%20largest%20oil%20exporter.

This guy gives a pretty good recap and analysis of the situation. Those various refineries that got hit didn't lose total output, but they do have financial ramifications and they are still easy future targets.

https://youtu.be/qq5bx5x7yFo?si=Quk7D_kPqD59sTpf