Remember a couple of months ago we thought 74,000 dead was a big number?

A prominent model used by the White House to predict the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak on Monday revised its estimated death toll sharply upward, and is now projecting the disease could result in more than 74,000 fatalities across the United States by early August.

The model, produced by researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and frequently referenced by top administration officials, modified its forecast to a projected 74,073 deaths in the U.S. by August 4 — with an estimate range of 56,563 to 130,666.

Because the forecast cuts off before the fall, when many epidemiologists anticipate a second wave of the outbreak to hit the U.S., even that revised projection could be a gross underestimate of the coronavirus’ ultimate death toll.

The previous update to the model, published last Wednesday, had projected 67,641 deaths, with an estimate range of 48,058 to 123,157.

The Good Old Days of late April.

And now, two months later, the CDC is forecasting 130,000 to 150,000 by July 18.

Post #434,970 by mmoffitt 7/1/20 12:06:43 PM 7/1/20 12:06:43 PM Reply	Remember a couple of months ago we thought 74,000 dead was a big number? A prominent model used by the White House to predict the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak on Monday revised its estimated death toll sharply upward, and is now projecting the disease could result in more than 74,000 fatalities across the United States by early August. The model, produced by researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and frequently referenced by top administration officials, modified its forecast to a projected 74,073 deaths in the U.S. by August 4 — with an estimate range of 56,563 to 130,666. Because the forecast cuts off before the fall, when many epidemiologists anticipate a second wave of the outbreak to hit the U.S., even that revised projection could be a gross underestimate of the coronavirus’ ultimate death toll. The previous update to the model, published last Wednesday, had projected 67,641 deaths, with an estimate range of 48,058 to 123,157. The Good Old Days of late April. And now, two months later, the CDC is forecasting 130,000 to 150,000 by July 18. bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #434,972 by rcareaga 7/1/20 12:14:17 PM 7/1/20 12:14:17 PM Reply	Re: Remember a couple of months… As to the CDC forecasting 130,000 to 150,000 by July 18, we’re already at (checks) 130,284 this morning. cordially,
Post #434,973 by mmoffitt 7/1/20 12:56:01 PM 7/1/20 12:56:01 PM Reply	Where'd you get that? I've been following John Hopkins numbers and they have us at 127,485 bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #434,977 by rcareaga 7/1/20 1:30:16 PM 7/1/20 1:30:16 PM Reply	Re: Where'd you get that? This site and this one both put the figure at 130,390 just now. cordially,
Post #434,990 by mmoffitt 7/2/20 8:15:31 AM 7/2/20 8:15:31 AM Reply	Thanks. bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #434,978 by dmcarls 7/1/20 1:30:22 PM 7/1/20 1:30:22 PM Reply	Infection transfer rate Until all these red states go to green, the virus is spreading. https://rt.live/ When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. A lot of states are still in the red (spreading)

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