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New I think the sunbelt may deploy it in the next decade to decade and a half.
Which, if I'm lucky, I'll live to see. My father-in-law was an exec for one of the larger Tier 1 automotive industry suppliers and it used to infuriate him when, in the 1990's, I used to say, "The dumbest thing about this country is that we're going to enter the 21st century using late 19th century technology as our primary means of travel." I was speaking, of course, of automobiles. My cousin (the first and perhaps still only non-Asian VP at Honda) and I got into an argument driving down to North Carolina once about automobiles. I kept saying, "the automobile has had no significant change in efficiency since it's introduction." To which he vociferously suggested that I'd lost the plot, insisting "many improvements had been made." This went back and forth for about an hour until I at last asked, "So, with all these improvements, is the exhaust still hot?" It got very quiet very quickly.

Ever since I first rode the metro in the Soviet Union I've known that automobiles are a particularly wasteful, stupid way to get around. Half a century later I still feel that way and am unlikely to ever change my mind on the subject.
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
Expand Edited by mmoffitt Jan. 3, 2020, 08:30:38 AM EST
New Re: "automobiles are a particularly wasteful, stupid way to get around"
True, unless the population density gets low in an area.
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
New Disagree.
Everywhere there is an Interstate freeway there should be a high speed electric rail system running in the median. I can't see how you can simultaneously argue against mass transit routes in rural areas and argue for roads to be built in those same areas. Many of those rural areas (mine among them) have multiple two and four lane highways strewn across them. Those roads are used by cars to go somewhere the population is more dense (why? because that's where the jobs are).

That's true in my area unless you are a farmer. In which case you're driving your tractor or combine down those same roads at approximately 3 m.p.h. making travel by automobile even less efficient than it already was! And don't get me started on the damned Amish buggies! ;0)
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New You'd have to rebuild society before that could work
Cleveland is the center of Cuyahoga County. There are 1.24 million people with a population density of 2,800/mi^2. According to a couple different studies:

At somewhere around 3,000 people per square mile, it makes sense to operate some level of infrequent local bus service. Source
A minimum density of about 11,5 thousand people/sq km is required before heavy rail (subway) development makes economic reason (red and pink area on the map). The density threshold at which light rail is cost-effective is about 7 thousand people/sq km (dark orange color). Source

(Note that the train figures are per square km, putting it more than 2 1/2 times further out of reach.)

Work and people are both too spread out to get by without cars.
--

Drew
New Heh.
I wonder how does Scotland ever do it with only an average density of 65 people per square kilometer (Range is 8 persons per square kilometer in Highland Council area to 3,298 persons per square kilometer in Glasgow City Council area - both numbers well below what you cite as required)?

Edit: Here's their rail map: https://www.scotrail.co.uk/sites/all/modules/interactive_map/assets/index.html
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
Expand Edited by mmoffitt Jan. 3, 2020, 02:59:52 PM EST
New Looks to me like . . .
. . that Scotland map is all intercity heavy rail (freight and travelers) not commuter rail.

Here in Los Angeles we have quite a lot of light rail with more planned, some heavy commuter rail and more planned - but even with all planned rail installed only patches of LA/Orange Counties will be covered. This is a combined city of more than 1000 square miles. Most will still have to use a car to get to rail stations, as they do now. It would take LA much more than 200 years to re-organize around rail - if we really wanted to.

Los Angeles also has a LOT of very heavy freight rail, as 1/3 of this entire country's foreign commerce passes through Los Angeles (port of Los Angeles / Long Beach). Rail connects to huge "inland ports" that have been built on the desert, because there isn't nearly enough room in Los Angeles County for warehousing and distribution on that scale. Those railroads aren't shown on the commuter rail map.
Much of that rail has been lowered or raised (at great cost) so it doesn't interfere with surface traffic.

We also have a whole lot of bus service to most of the yellow area on that map (I live in a yellow area) but to use it for any distance will take hours where a car is minutes.

Ecology and conservation enthusiasts always come up with plans that maximize the use of the one resource that is in critically short supply and not at all renewable, for any of us - time, as related to the shortness of life.

Of course, for me, public transport is simply impossible. I need to travel the region a lot, with varying destinations and and with varying loads of tools and equipment, usually much more than can be carried on public transportation.

What we really need is smaller more efficient cars, and for people to adjust to smaller, more efficient cars. Electric cars and hybrids are now very common here in LA County. When Toyota announced they'd sold a million Priuses, I wondered where they'd sold the other 12. You can't drive more than a few miles anywhere around here without seeing Teslas - they swarm here. I even see some of those electric BMWs that look like mineature Pontiac Azteks (what were they thinking?).
New I was disputing population density requirements.
The cited number required for "some level of infrequent bus service" was 3,000 per square mile. I don't know what "infrequent bus service" is, but I wouldn't exactly call this, a non-comprehensive bus schedule," infrequent. The population of Moffat is under 2,500. Moffat is a small rural village, iow. I'm not claiming that rail can replace *all* transportation in this country, only that it is an underutilized form of transportation. As are all forms of mass transit here.

The point is no amount of batteries (look up the carbon footprint of their manufacture), cars (again, carbon footprint) and required roads (like tar? Have some more) is going to help much in the effort to keep this rock a healthy place for humans. I see high speed rail in the medians of our Interstate system as a more responsible, more efficient and far less polluting alternative to air travel and truck freight. I do not see it, nor am I suggesting that it could be, an alternative to automobiles.
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New Oh, for air and freight? Yeah, totally agree.
--

Drew
New +1
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
New Recall those HS 'physics' problems like, drop an egg from a roof..
successfully sans breakage?

Methinks we need--for all the reasons mentioned--personal-wheels --> Indefinitely. Make these of lightweight materials (even carbon fibre as mass-demand drops costs). F=MA. Still.. lighter conveyance, fewer batteries needed etc.; make them two-tier for a start ..maybe three:
A) for the commuter-grade daily jaunt, mainly.
B) [Opt] more batteries thus diminishing return on lightness BUT with 200+ mileage/charge--proliferation of charging stations (+ good book to read at layover) you could do the long junkets.
C) [with Huge annual Fed. tax] for the G-force junkies: 0-60 in 1.666 secs and like that.

Problem solved. Just elect moi Dictator for liff (mine would be shorter thence)--someone would sniperate moi when I banned their personal-Humvee and '70 Buick Riviera, etc.

See? Nothing is ever {really-simple} but tha above ain't so complexificated as many approaches already out there.



As Conslutant: moi works for a mere $500/hr on ...turning-cars-into-safe-eggs. And you become ... (that's a yoke, Son).

:-oTpy
Expand Edited by Ashton Jan. 4, 2020, 04:04:18 PM EST
New This being Murica you're talking about, wouldn't you have to...
...build one in the first place, before you could re-build it?
--

   Christian R. Conrad
The Man Who (used to think he) Knows Fucking Everything


Mail: Same username as at the top left of this post, at iki.fi
New cant have high speed rail if you have to stop at every exit for pickup and dropoff
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New The last mile is still a thing.
Or are you suggesting high speed rail on every street? I don't think so. :-)

Buses? Similar issues although not as bad. Schedules are an issue. Or are we going to run the buses all night long?

Walking? Last year I couldn't walk 100 yards without getting a debilitating migraine, let alone a half mile or mile. Even without the migraines I'm definitely not interested in walking that mile in a Michigan winter either.

I should add, I am 100% a proponent of mass transit. It's not a panacea though.
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Expand Edited by malraux Jan. 4, 2020, 01:19:35 PM EST
New (Slightly OT) Bus schedules in Long Beach in the late 1970's were great.
As a starving youngster on his own in So Cal in 1978 working full time at a Medical lab in San Pedro, I used to spend well over two hours a day commuting to work in my 1971 Dodge Charger (8 mpg iirc). Then my car broke down and I didn't have the money to fix it. A couple of blocks away I found I could catch a bus every 20 minutes or so that would take me to Terminal Island. From there, I'd switch to LA's bus system to ride to San Pedro and get off the bus a block from where I worked. My wait for the transfer was never more than twenty minutes and most often, much less than that.

All told, the bus added about half an hour to my journey which I put to good use buying a Sunday Only LA Times subscription. I read that paper cover to cover on my bus commute (back then it would take that amount of time to read the entire paper). In addition, I was saving a ton of money. I had been spending roughly $6.00/day on gas (a lot of that was burning gas in bumper-to-bumper traffic) and the bus cost me 25 cents in the morning (transfer tickets were free both directions) and 35 cents for the return. Saving $5.40 per day was a big deal in 1978 for me.

I enjoyed that bus commute so much that I didn't get my car fixed until right before I left California - a year later.
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New Bad moi. Empty
Expand Edited by Ashton Jan. 6, 2020, 03:52:58 PM EST
New Heh.. whilst starving I rode the Vincent. (Prolly got only ~50 mpg though) F=MA ;^>
New I did a similar thing in DC
1.5 hours via bus to the subway to the financial district. One of the best commutes I ever had, apart from my 8-minutes-with-a-headwind-or-20-minutes-via-bike commute when I worked very close to home. The 1.5 hours compared to 3 hours by car on 66.
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
     Mike M: another example of Boeing's 'Commitment-to-Safety' cha. cha. - (Ashton) - (21)
         But FBW is safer and better. Ask Airbus. - (mmoffitt) - (19)
             Similar vantage. 'AU'/artificial {still-Un} intelligence; we don't know even our own brainz. -NT - (Ashton)
             Re on the driverless cars - (crazy) - (17)
                 I think the sunbelt may deploy it in the next decade to decade and a half. - (mmoffitt) - (16)
                     Re: "automobiles are a particularly wasteful, stupid way to get around" - (a6l6e6x) - (15)
                         Disagree. - (mmoffitt) - (14)
                             You'd have to rebuild society before that could work - (drook) - (7)
                                 Heh. - (mmoffitt) - (4)
                                     Looks to me like . . . - (Andrew Grygus) - (3)
                                         I was disputing population density requirements. - (mmoffitt) - (2)
                                             Oh, for air and freight? Yeah, totally agree. -NT - (drook) - (1)
                                                 +1 -NT - (malraux)
                                 Recall those HS 'physics' problems like, drop an egg from a roof.. - (Ashton)
                                 This being Murica you're talking about, wouldn't you have to... - (CRConrad)
                             cant have high speed rail if you have to stop at every exit for pickup and dropoff -NT - (boxley)
                             The last mile is still a thing. - (malraux) - (4)
                                 (Slightly OT) Bus schedules in Long Beach in the late 1970's were great. - (mmoffitt) - (3)
                                     Bad moi. Empty -NT - (Ashton)
                                     Heh.. whilst starving I rode the Vincent. (Prolly got only ~50 mpg though) F=MA ;^> -NT - (Ashton)
                                     I did a similar thing in DC - (malraux)
         And don't forget to check the firmware version before boarding! - (scoenye)

Able to chew and walk gum at the same time.
122 ms