Where that 67 percent of voters land will determine the outcome of the primary. The number of possiblities at this point are so numerous that it is impossible to predict the most likely nominee. While Biden and Sanders have an advantage, given that they have a group of supporters who are primarily loyal to them, that is to be expected given their long political histories and name recognition.

The first debate will take place in a little over two weeks and will provide some indication of whether the four that are planned for 2019 will have an impact on Democrats who are considering multiple candidates. After that, we can rest assured that the early caucuses and primaries will begin to consolidate support. In that case, ground game—particularly in Iowa—will be an important factor, making reports like this worth watching.

Ben LaBolt served as the national press secretary for President Obama’s 2012 campaign and as part of the team that implemented the reelection strategy beginning in 2011. He is alarmed that President Trump is replicating Obama’s successes.

The Democratic Party is focused on choosing a nominee from about 24 options, while the Republicans are working under the assumption that Trump will be their nominee again in 2020. This frees the GOP to raise money for the general election and focus on the states and districts that they believe will decide the outcome. For LaBolt, this is the same kind of advantage that Obama utilized in his reelection bid, and it’s giving Trump an early leg-up that may prove impossible to overcome.

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