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New 2020 GE Predictions Thread
You're gonna love my prediction: Trump again. It'll be close but inarguable.

The Democrats will find a way to fuck it. I dunno, campaigning hard in Wyoming or Idaho or something, whilst ignoring places like Michigan and Wisconsin. Or by picking a weak candidate like Warren (too old), or by letting the GOP control the narrative, or by not either selecting Sanders or by selecting him (also too old).

It'd be nice to be wrong. But I think y'all are fucked until DJT times out.
New Curse You! Red Barren; ya mean that..
Creeping-gradualism via gently-waking the poo-poo-heads large amongst us ... won't work? again??



Will the first Serious Person please immolate-self on the White House lawn? Any genuine Patriots left (?)
The Buddhist monks have done their fair share ..even if the sacrifices didn't really keep the U.S. from
shooting selves in the foot 365/24/7 (until they ran out of bombs).

Vote Nihilist! Help rasPutin Re-(sorta-) Elect Drumpf! Twice is a charm.

LRPD advises: Do not ask for whom the bellicose tolls.
Expand Edited by Ashton March 1, 2019, 03:05:57 AM EST
Expand Edited by Ashton March 1, 2019, 09:47:38 PM EST
New You may be right, but for the wrong reason
The Democrats may do any or all of the things you describe, but that won't be why he wins.

Despite how much the Republican establishment hated him, in office he's allowed them to enact whatever the fuck they've wanted. The monied interests are happy, and they'll ensure media coverage sticks to horse race stories, and highlighting every "gaff" or "misstep" of his opponent.

The only way that changes is if, in the next few months, they decide his coattails are so toxic that they're afraid they'll lose the Senate. Then they might allow impeachment proceedings, or he could actually face a primary challenge. Maybe Mark Cuban.
--

Drew
New Mine.
Trump loses popular vote (again), but this time by more than last. I'd say by at least 7 million. But, he wins the electoral college.

No one should ever underestimate the depths of depravity within "The American Heartland"™.
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New Elections since November 2018 would argue otherwise.
There's been a large (~10 point) swing toward Democrats since Donnie took office. That has continued.

In many cases, it hasn't been enough to win (e.g. many Senate races), but that is enough to overwhelm close races.

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future, but if someone has the stamina and the qualities to survive the upcoming Democratic primaries (where they will experience 2019-2020's version of "but her emails" for months on end, etc.) then they will be in a good position in the fall of 2020.

Women are pissed off. People who aren't getting the tax refunds they expected are pissed off. They're not going away.

And Mueller's report still hasn't dropped yet...

We'll see.

Cheers,
Scott.
New You're whistling past the graveyard again, my friend.
I'll grant you that in places other than "The Heartland"™ results have been good for Democrats. But, Indiana booted their Democratic Senator by a large margin in '18, as did Missouri, as did North Dakota. And these were NOT flaming lefty's.

And let's not forget 42 percent of Muricans have a positive view of Trump, even today FFS.

I'm afraid it's increasingly looking like you'll have to once again trot out that old trope, "But, s/he won the popular vote!" whilst dreading (like all of us) four more years.
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New I hope you're right
But I fear you're more wrong than peach on a pizza.
New Heh. :-) Brexit?
While you're here, what do you think is going to happen on Friday March 29th?

1) Kick the can down the road (90+ delay on Brexit)

2) May's "Deal" approved and implemented

3) Crashout Brexit with No "Deal"

4) 1 + New Referendum
4a) New Referendum asks: May's "Deal" or No Brexit
4b) New Referendum asks: Brexit or No Brexit

5) Parliament wakes up (before or after new elections) and walks back from the brink. No Brexit (Article 50 revoked) and Parliament revokes the EU (Withdrawal) Act of 2018.

6) Something else?

I keep assuming it will eventually be #5, but May is so stubborn that I wouldn't be surprised if it's #1. I can't see #2 happening, but I can't see the Tories and the anti-EU folks easily giving up on their chance to "stick it to the libs" as the Teabaggers over here love trying to do...

Cheers,
Scott.
New Re: Heh. :-) Brexit?
It'll be one or two; or some shit amalgam of the pair. Do not underestimate the ability of the UK government to make a bad situation even worse.
New donnie will win if the electorate fears the senate turning democratic if the senate looks good
the folks will take a chance on a democratic president. Divided politics is good politics
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New Re: 2020 GE Predictions Thread

As of mid-February, FiveThirtyEight had Trump’s approval rating at 41.6 percent while 54 percent disapproved of his job performance. A CNN analysis of approval ratings correlated with party identification estimates that just 20 percent of the U.S. population over the age of 18 is Republicans who approve of Trump. A Brookings Report has noted erosion in both mainstream political parties as more voters declare themselves independents. However, the erosion has been strongest within the Republican Party since Trump’s election in 2016. To win in 2020, Trump needs to expand his base but appears unwilling or incapable of doing so.




https://truthout.org/articles/is-donald-trump-destined-to-be-a-one-term-president/




Satan (impatiently) to Newcomer: The trouble with you Chicago people is, that you think you are the best people down here; whereas you are merely the most numerous.
- - - Mark Twain, "Pudd'nhead Wilson's New Calendar" 1897
     2020 GE Predictions Thread - (pwhysall) - (10)
         Curse You! Red Barren; ya mean that.. - (Ashton)
         You may be right, but for the wrong reason - (drook)
         Mine. - (mmoffitt)
         Elections since November 2018 would argue otherwise. - (Another Scott) - (4)
             You're whistling past the graveyard again, my friend. - (mmoffitt)
             I hope you're right - (pwhysall) - (2)
                 Heh. :-) Brexit? - (Another Scott) - (1)
                     Re: Heh. :-) Brexit? - (pwhysall)
         donnie will win if the electorate fears the senate turning democratic if the senate looks good - (boxley)
         Re: 2020 GE Predictions Thread - (lincoln)

Reese's Pieces? Am I in a different pit this time?
101 ms