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New Make Way for ... Irma [??]
Per Weather Underground as of 5 pm EST today.
It's now officially at Cat-4. :-/
Cuba, S. Florida etc. etc.
New I have a daughter in South Florida, so I'll be watching.
Hopefully it will veer off further South.
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
New And head toward Texas or Mexico?
If it swings into the Gulf of Mexico, it could strengthen and be a real horror show. :0(
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
Expand Edited by mmoffitt Sept. 5, 2017, 08:07:47 AM EDT
Expand Edited by mmoffitt Sept. 5, 2017, 08:09:04 AM EDT
New Um...
NHC Discussion #26 at 11 AM:

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.


Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist
mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves
west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions
should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much
of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are
likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes
little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater
Antilles.

Irma continues to move westward at about 12 kt, and a strong
subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic should steer
Irma generally westward today. The ridge is expected to remain in
place over the western Atlantic during the next several days and
Irma is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the most of
remainder of the forecast period. Around day 5, a shortwave trough
dropping southward over the central United States is expected to
begin eroding the western portion of the ridge, allowing a Irma to
gain some latitude. The new NHC track forecast is close to the
HFIP corrected consensus model and is very similar to the previous
forecast.

Since Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on
the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force
winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center.
Residents in the Leeward Islands should complete their preparations
very soon as the weather will begin to deteriorate over the
easternmost Leeward Islands later this afternoon.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today
and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow.
Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of
tropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and
tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos,
and Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to
those areas on Thursday and Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this
weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the
Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing
and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to
determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental
United States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


(Emphasis added.)

A neat graphic of a couple of models. On shows the eye hitting Tampa, one shows it hitting Miami.

It's going to be a mess, even without hitting the Gulf. :-(

Cheers,
Scott.
New Thanks for reminding: NHC is about the Best we gots..
IF.. this becomes a Monster.. there's a small [+] side (one Hopes) re the Climate-Deniers' incipient Waterloo

(dis-US is so screwed up that) this "maybe news"... IS a [+] ... :-/
New If I were a worse person ... and had a forum to pull this stunt ...
I'd have gone into Texas ahead of Harvey and tracked down Trump voters who were planning to evacuate. I'd ask if they believe in climate change, and when they say "No" ask them why not. Then ask them to square their answer with the fact that they're evacuating.

After all, it's only climate scientists predicting rain, and they've got lots of different models that give lots of different predictions. They don't really "know" anything, do they?
--

Drew
New Well, as an Edjumacation(?) errand, one comes up with another association
It seems IME that, those who often employ a variety of "Logical Errors"--each having its own Name--are also amongthat group which is unaware that there IS such a List.

This is not to Insist-that: were each of these to be exposed to The LIst? in an amiable bull-session (suitably laced with humorous examples) say,
that none! would Grok to some degree: their thus predicament. Am unaware if this experiment has been funded. Yet.
But I recommend the drill to any career-hungry socio-{something) Student, as well as to all those quite Certain that: all these dupes are Simply incorrigible Dullards.




We gots to Start from Somewhere with that ... benefit of a doubt koan, Right? :-)
New There once was a professor of philosophy ...
I can't find a reference to the story, so here's how I remember it.

Two students were in the professor's apartment arguing that it was impossible to know anything with certainty. As the argument wore on, he invited them to join him at the cafe across the street for lunch.

Upon reaching the street, he pushed them in front of an approaching carriage. When they both jumped back he asked them, "If you didn't know that carriage was approaching, why didn't you continue across the street to the cafe?"

While it may be true in a philosophical sense that you don't "know" something, there's a point where it's close enough to live your life by.
--

Drew
New ;^> ... True, dat.
umm.. 'sorta', because..
[this reply cancelled because: TMI]
New NO! Climate change is a HOAX.
This is not climate change - this is the WRATH OF GOD - for voting for Trump!
New Thanks.
I don't know this science. I see from your graphic that it's supposed to turn hard north as it just passes the tip of FL. I'm sure there's solid reasoning behind making that prediction and am in no way questioning it, but I am curious as to why it won't keep moving West as the eye moves between Cuba and FL? Do you know what, either in the model or in nature itself, makes that an unlikely track?
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New Hurricanes draw their energy from warm water
When they hit land, they'll tend to turn toward the land since the energy is coming in from the opposite side.
--

Drew
New There's supposed to be a high-pressure front moving in to keep it from moving farther west.
New Of course. Completely logical, I hadn't looked. Thanks again.
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New Actually, Cuban mountains to siphon it's energy.
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
New wait until after it hits cuba to see where it may end up
according to the guys down the street where I work Irma will be going lengthwise down cuba on the florida straits side under current projections, that will also depends on how the mountain terrain of Puerto Rico and Haiti affect it which may be hit head on. After Cuba the models will be a lot firmer on direction, speed and intensity. If it gets into the gulf all bets are off as it could gain a tremendous amount of strength there. A cold front moving into the gulf states Wednesday night will also affect landfall.
Went to the store today, no water to be found. Could thing I have a hose and a 50 gallon tank. Will be charging the Generator battery tomorrow just in case.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New WaPo has some beautifully Al Punte Irma data displays..
Here.

FLA? ...

Y. P. B.
New please note it hasn't made the turn yet
while I have a lot of sympathy for floridians I hope the damm thing doesnt come up here. The front that has been holding it off is weakening
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New Haven't seen any NHC note later than ~3pm EDT Sat. Where saw the "weakening" observation?
Noted earlier IIRC that.. yes a Px-drop AS Irma arrives (as clearly ITs LOW-px will add-in to the mix.)
New made the turn, whew! as for wher saw the weakening observation
looking straight up at the sky, wind shift, wave patterns and humidity
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New The models keep show it slowly drifting west.
Keep an eye on Windy and be prepared to bug out.

Good luck!

Cheers,
Scott.
     Make Way for ... Irma [??] - (Ashton) - (20)
         I have a daughter in South Florida, so I'll be watching. - (a6l6e6x) - (13)
             And head toward Texas or Mexico? - (mmoffitt) - (12)
                 Um... - (Another Scott) - (10)
                     Thanks for reminding: NHC is about the Best we gots.. - (Ashton) - (5)
                         If I were a worse person ... and had a forum to pull this stunt ... - (drook) - (3)
                             Well, as an Edjumacation(?) errand, one comes up with another association - (Ashton) - (2)
                                 There once was a professor of philosophy ... - (drook) - (1)
                                     ;^> ... True, dat. - (Ashton)
                         NO! Climate change is a HOAX. - (Andrew Grygus)
                     Thanks. - (mmoffitt) - (3)
                         Hurricanes draw their energy from warm water - (drook)
                         There's supposed to be a high-pressure front moving in to keep it from moving farther west. -NT - (Another Scott) - (1)
                             Of course. Completely logical, I hadn't looked. Thanks again. -NT - (mmoffitt)
                 Actually, Cuban mountains to siphon it's energy. -NT - (a6l6e6x)
         wait until after it hits cuba to see where it may end up - (boxley)
         WaPo has some beautifully Al Punte Irma data displays.. - (Ashton) - (4)
             please note it hasn't made the turn yet - (boxley) - (3)
                 Haven't seen any NHC note later than ~3pm EDT Sat. Where saw the "weakening" observation? - (Ashton) - (1)
                     made the turn, whew! as for wher saw the weakening observation - (boxley)
                 The models keep show it slowly drifting west. - (Another Scott)

When things get creepy... blame it on the Boogie!
140 ms