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New Over-sampling isn't nefarious
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/even_polls_about_baseball.html

Pollsters sometimes "oversample" a survey sub-population in order to increase the reliability of the results for that group. More interviews means less potential random sampling error. Before tabulating the data for the full sample, however, they "weight" back the oversample its correct proportion with the larger sample.

I checked with Gary Langer, the director of polling at ABC News, and he provided a few additional details. The ABC Polling Unit started with a nationally representative sample of 1,803 randomly selected adults interviewed between March 29 and April 4. Of these, 660 described themselves as baseball fans (on the survey's first question). Of these, 64 were African-American.

The pollsters wanted a bigger and more reliable sampling of African-Americans. So they continued calling from April 5 to April 22 and interviewed another 476 randomly sampled African Americans, of whom 139 were self-described baseball fans.

Thus (adding everything up), the ESPN/ABC survey interviewed 799 baseball fans, including 203 among African Americans. Before tabulating the data, however, they weighted the combined sample of 2,279 (the original 1,803 plus the oversample of 476 blacks) in a way that reduced the proportion of African-Americans to its correct value as determined by the U.S. Census.**

This practice is not at all unusual. The intent is to generate more statistically reliable results by race, not -- as Brown puts it -- to "generate racially charged results."


This is more people frothing about things they don't actually understand. Over-sampling increases accuracy. It's not nefarious manipulation of the results.
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
New Thank you.
New Specifically ...
Research, microtargeting & polling projects
- Over-sample Hispanics
- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
- Over-sample the Native American population

The lower the expected turnout of a particular demographic, the higher the margin of error if you survey that demographic in proportion. Remember the story recently of the single black student who skewed a poll by 3% every time he responded?
--

Drew
New Yes, that's the LAT poll I mentioned.
His opinion was weighted at something over 300 if I recall.
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
New Yes, that one
If I understand things correctly, you oversample so that you can underweight and reduce volatility. That poll went the other way, just take who they got and overweight to make up the difference.
--

Drew
New Exactly.
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
New I totally missed that
It's not a "new Podesta email", it's a just released Podesta email ... from 2008.
--

Drew
New thats what I was looking for, thanks
always look out for number one and don't step in number two
New More from The Atlantic
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
New It's almost as if...
...actual knowledge is an antidote to bullshit, or something.
New :-)!
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
     hey nother serious question - (boxley) - (20)
         From a casual glance - (hnick)
         Taking things out of context isn't way to enlightenment. - (Another Scott) - (5)
             not taking anything out of context, was looking at the Atlas project info - (boxley) - (4)
                 I don't see what Wikileaks has to do with polling, but YMMV. - (Another Scott) - (3)
                     Serious question. - (mmoffitt) - (2)
                         Depends on the context. ;-) -NT - (Another Scott)
                         The BBC and PBS are pretty good as sources. -NT - (a6l6e6x)
         Over-sampling isn't nefarious - (malraux) - (11)
             Thank you. -NT - (Another Scott)
             Specifically ... - (drook) - (3)
                 Yes, that's the LAT poll I mentioned. - (malraux) - (2)
                     Yes, that one - (drook) - (1)
                         Exactly. -NT - (malraux)
             Also too. - (Another Scott) - (1)
                 I totally missed that - (drook)
             thats what I was looking for, thanks -NT - (boxley)
             More from The Atlantic - (malraux)
             It's almost as if... - (pwhysall) - (1)
                 :-)! -NT - (a6l6e6x)
         PK weighs in: Oversampling at the Fed! - (Another Scott)

Do you believe everything you read on the radio?
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