About that LA Times poll

http://nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1&referer=

Apparently there's one outlier in their sample who is skewing the whole thing.

Our Trump-supporting friend in Illinois is a surprisingly big part of the reason. In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.

Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.

He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks.

Post #414,472 by malraux 10/12/16 2:24:43 PM 10/12/16 4:30:26 PM Reply	About that LA Times poll http://nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1&referer= Apparently there's one outlier in their sample who is skewing the whole thing. Our Trump-supporting friend in Illinois is a surprisingly big part of the reason. In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent. Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists. He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks. Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson. Edited by malraux Oct. 12, 2016, 04:30:26 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #414,473 by crazy 10/12/16 3:45:06 PM 10/12/16 3:45:06 PM Reply	Need login. Any other source?
Post #414,474 by crazy 10/12/16 3:54:47 PM 10/12/16 3:54:47 PM Reply	Never mind , found it Actually, same link, but when gotten there from a Google query let me in.
Post #414,478 by drook 10/12/16 4:24:37 PM 10/12/16 4:24:37 PM Reply	I just deleted "mobile" from the front of the URL and it worked -- Drew
Post #414,479 by malraux 10/12/16 4:30:55 PM 10/12/16 4:30:55 PM Reply	Edited now that I'm on desktop Thanks. Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.

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