Post #402,514
6/14/15 12:12:12 PM
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Telegraph.uk: Grexit plans.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11673989/Syriza-Left-demands-Icelandic-default-as-Greek-defiance-stiffens.htmlThe radical wing of Greece's Syriza party is to table plans over coming days for an Icelandic-style default and a nationalisation of the Greek banking system, deeming it pointless to continue talks with Europe's creditor powers.
Syriza sources says measures being drafted include capital controls and the establishment of a sovereign central bank able to stand behind a new financial system. While some form of dual currency might be possible in theory, such a structure would be incompatible with euro membership and would imply a rapid return to the drachma.
The confidential plans were circulating over the weekend and have the backing of 30 MPs from the Aristeri Platforma or 'Left Platform', as well as other hard-line groupings in Syriza's spectrum. It is understood that the nationalist ANEL party in the ruling coalition is also willing to force a rupture with creditors, if need be.
"This goes well beyond the Left Platform. We are talking serious numbers," said one Syriza MP involved in the draft.
[...]
Mr Tsipras warned over the weekend in the clearest terms to date that Greece's creditors should not push him too far. "Our only criterion is an end to the 'memoranda of servitude' and an exit from the crisis," he said.
"If Europe wants the division and the perpetuation of servitude, we will take the plunge and issue a 'big no'. We will fight for the dignity of the people and our sovereignty," he said.
European officials examined 'war game' scenarios of a Greek default in Bratislava on Thursday, admitting for the first time that they may need a Plan B after all. "It was a preparation for the worst case. Countries wanted to know what was going on," said one participant to AFP.
The creditors argue that 'Grexit' would be suicidal for Greece. They have been negotiating on the assumption that Syriza must be bluffing, and will ultimately capitulate. Little thought has gone into possibility that key figures in Athens may be thinking along entirely different lines.
Tasos Koronaki, the party secretary, said on Sunday that attempts to split the party will fail. "The government will not enter into any agreement that is not accepted by the parliamentary group. We are more united than ever," he said. The EU/IMF bigwigs need to take this seriously... Cheers, Scott.
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Post #402,519
6/14/15 12:29:05 PM
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Everything I need to know I learned in kindergarten
Whenever countries are fighting, I frame their arguments in terms of what 5-year-olds would say and see what would happen.
EU: "You can't do that."
Greece: "Oh yeah?"
EU: "You'll be sorry!"
Greece: "You're not the boss of me!"
Hasn't failed me so far.
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Post #402,529
6/14/15 4:34:16 PM
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"Don't Let The Door Hit You On The Way Out!"
So, let them walk to the poor house with dignity.
When the monthly pension check in drachmas can't buy a Starbucks cup of joe they may figure out where they've gone wrong. Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
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Post #402,530
6/14/15 5:10:41 PM
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Easy solution.
Tell the Turks that if they'll make a deal to cover at least a good part of Greece's debt, they can have it back.
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Post #402,543
6/15/15 12:20:57 AM
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And, come to think of it . . .
. . there's a few other places we ought to encourage them to take back, starting with Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
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Post #402,531
6/14/15 5:10:52 PM
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Dunno.
It seems that, at this point, they'll have a much better chance of recovering in the next 10 years out of the Euro than they would under the plans that the EU/IMF are trying to force on them. http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_14/06/2015_551042Moreover, the IMF is seen exerting pressure on all sides, especially Berlin, to impose tough policies on Greece so it gets its money back. From the Greek side’s point of view, the IMF’s stance also stresses the internal differences between the three institutions. Still, the three institutions ironed out their differences in their joint proposal discussed by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and European Commission President Jean-Paul Juncker.
In the same non-paper, the Greek government tried to counter the arguments made by IMF representative Gerry Rice earlier, highlighting a few points with regard to the pension system, a major thorny issue. It said that the average monthly pension in Greece is 664.69 euros for the main ones and 168.40 euros for the supplementary pensions. According to the authors of the non-paper, 44.8 percent of pensioners, that is, 1,189,396 out of a total of 2,654,784, receive a monthly pension that is lower than the poverty line of 665 euros. It also pointed out the average monthly pensions in Greece and Germany are about the same.
The non-paper also tried to play down the differences between Greece and Germany as far as the average age of retirement is concerned, arguing they are small in a bid to show the IMF was tough on the country. It said the retirement age is the same for men at 63 years old in both countries, but admitted that while German women retire at 62 years old on average, Greek women receive a pension at 59.
It is easy to see why the government is making this comparison. It wants to show that the IMF’s demands for a drastic reform of the pensions system are excessive. However, the German economy has little or none in common with the Greek economy which is burdened by a huge public debt, exceeding 170 percent of GDP, has a small export base and is not internationally competitive. How valid are the numbers? Are they a reasonable comparison? Dunno. But on average the Greek pensioners aren't making out like bandits. Taking even more money out of the economy isn't going to help the economy grow. We'll see what happens. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #402,532
6/14/15 5:11:41 PM
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What you need to know is this.
No-one in the EU actually gives two shits about the Greeks leaving. The practical economic impact will be negligible. We'll all still go there on holiday, get the shits and complain about their hilariously bad plumbing, which is just about the limit of our interaction with the Greek economy right now.
Behold the field in which we grow our fucks; cast thine eyes on it, and ye shall see that it is barren.
However, what is not negligible is the precedent that a Grexit would set.
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Post #402,534
6/14/15 6:07:46 PM
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The banksters want their money.
I'm not surprised that the average Joe in the EU doesn't care. The banksters, though, do care very much. There was lots of screaming and hollering when Argentina defaulted, but the clean break helped lay the foundation for a decent recovery. (Though debt negotiations dragged out for years.) Greece needs to do something similar and needs to get out of the Euro if it is to recover. Or the EU/IMF needs to make less onerous terms so that Greece sees a path to recovery. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #402,540
6/14/15 10:54:42 PM
6/14/15 10:56:39 PM
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Re: get the shits
That is in fact one of my memories of Greece. It was fortunately just before leaving. Playing back the prior day, I think I figured out the cause. On way back from Delphi to Athens the bus stopped at a restaurant. Now it could have been in the food, but I found it usual that the waiter unscrewed the cap off the bottled water that he served me. They were too busy to allow for such niceties. I suspect they were too cheap to use real bottled water and refilled bottles with less than safe (for visitors) tap water.
When visiting Mexico, we call that Montezuma's revenge.
And yes, it's 2% tail of EU trying to shake the rest of the 98% dog.
Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
Edited by a6l6e6x
June 14, 2015, 10:56:39 PM EDT
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