CalculatedRisk:

Although Greece mostly lived up to the terms of the bailout, the promised growth never materialized (see tables below). As Greek Prime Minister recently said: "We are not negotiating the bailout; it was cancelled by its own failure.

The only choices are to allow Greece to run a smaller primary surplus or for Greece to leave the Eurozone and default on all their debt. The first choice seems likely, but not without some drama.

Note: Greece would have left the Eurozone in 2010 if the actual numbers below had been the plan. No politician would have signed up for that economic devastation!


Unemployment was supposed to be 14% in 2014 according to the IMF forecasts. Instead, it was around 27%.

:-(

Cheers,
Scott.