Post #399,085
2/12/15 8:13:15 AM
|
The ceasefire agreement sounds like a win for Ukraine.
Did Putin blink? BBC News: Here are the key points of the new plan:
1. Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire
To take effect in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, from 00:00 local time on 15 February (22:00 GMT on 14 February).
2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides
To equal distances to create a buffer zone of: at least 50km (30 miles) separating both sides for artillery systems of 100mm calibre or more; 70km for multiple rocket systems and 140km for the heaviest rocket and missile systems such as Tornado, Uragan, Smerch and Tochka.
Withdrawal for Ukrainian troops is from the actual contact line.
Withdrawal for separatist forces is from the line of 19 September 2014.
Heavy weapons withdrawal must start no later than the second day after the ceasefire and be completed within two weeks. The OSCE security body will assist in the process.
3. Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons
To be carried out by the OSCE from day one. Using all necessary technical tools including satellites, radar etc.
4. From day one of the withdrawal begin a dialogue on the holding of local elections
In line with the Ukrainian law on temporary self-rule for particular parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, and a dialogue on those areas' future.
5. Pardon and amnesty by banning prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk events
6. All hostages and illegally detained people are to be released
On the basis of "all for all". It must be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the military withdrawal.
7. Safe access to, delivery, storage and distribution of, humanitarian aid for the needy, internationally supervised
8. Means will be determined to restore full social and economic links with affected areas
Including social transfers, such as payment of pensions. To that end, Ukraine will restore its banking services in districts affected by the conflict.
9. Full control will be restored over the state border by the Ukrainian government throughout the conflict zone
To begin on the first day after local elections, and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement, by the end of 2015. (Local elections in rebel-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions will be based on Ukrainian law and a constitutional reform.)
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory
To be monitored by the OSCE. All illegal groups to be disarmed.
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with adoption by the end of 2015 of a new constitution
A key element of which will be decentralisation (taking account of the special features of certain parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of those regions), and adoption of permanent laws on the special status of those areas. The question is, of course, whether the "rebels" will accept the terms and abide by them. In all the recent reporting I've seen (mainly on the BBC), they were talking like they'd never give up an inch of ground nor accept Ukrainian rule. We'll see what happens... Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #399,096
2/12/15 9:52:37 AM
|
Will guys like this leave, too?
|
Post #399,111
2/12/15 9:34:13 PM
|
Lots of people speak English.
How about all those Russian passports that Poroshenko was showing a couple of days ago? RT says it was performance art. On Mariupol, dunno... Kyiv Post: Adrian Rrllc Brent • 19 days ago
"Today an offensive was launched on Mariupol. This will be the best possible monument to all our dead," Alexander Zakharchenko .... A few hours later...“Until now, we weren't conducting any operations outside Mariupol. We’re saving strength,” Alexander Zakharchenko
Let the contradictions begin. It's a mess in Ukraine and lots of people are suffering. The suffering will end as soon as Putin stops his incitement and supporting of the rebels with arms, equipment, and soldiers. Not until then. My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #399,124
2/13/15 8:44:52 AM
|
It could end in a second with these words from Poroshenko.
"The Ukraine will not join NATO."
|
Post #399,129
2/13/15 1:38:51 PM
|
Putin started this because of an EU agreement, not a proposed NATO agreement...
NATO is a side issue. You know this.
Putin wants Ukraine to be economically dependent on Russia. He doesn't want it being part of, or having strong relationships with, the EU. Too much gas goes through Ukraine for him to give up that leverage.
There's no chance of Ukraine joining NATO soon, unless Putin continues to push, then all bets are off...
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
|
Post #399,133
2/13/15 4:31:27 PM
|
Re: NATO is a side issue. You know this.
It's not an issue at all except in Russian propaganda and the idiots that believe it. It's been long destined and accepted by almost all to be a buffer state.
NATO wouldn't have Ukraine for any number of reasons. Russian "sensitivity" is one of those reasons. But NATO does not want Russia to consume Ukraine and move it's borders up against NATO countries either. Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
|
Post #399,142
2/13/15 9:19:16 PM
|
Yup. Thanks.
|
Post #399,179
2/15/15 6:06:10 PM
|
I guess that all depends on whose propaganda you want to believe.
I suppose we didn't assure Gorbachev of anything as well.
|
Post #399,181
2/15/15 6:56:51 PM
|
#397198
Everything is connected to a previous post... ;-)How about the issue of independent states being free to set their own policies and so forth? UN 25/2625 (October 24, 1970): Convinced that the strict observance by States of the obligation not to intervene in the affairs of any other State is an essential condition to ensure that nations live together in peace with one another, since the practice of any form of intervention not only violates the spirit and letter of the Charter, but also leads to the creation of situations which threaten international peace and security,
Recalling the duty of States to refrain in their international relations from military, political, economic or any other form of coercion aimed against the political independence or territorial integrity of any State,
Considering it essential that all States shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations,
Considering it equally essential that all States shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in accordance with the Charter,
Reaffirming, in accordance with the Charter, the basic importance of sovereign equality and stressing that the purposes of the United Nations can be implemented only if States enjoy sovereign equality and comply fully with the requirements of this principle in their international relations, Does Putin's hurt feelings trump that, too? To be clear - yes, we (the USA) too often haven't stood up for those principles in the past. That doesn't mean Putin should be able to trash them now. Ukraine is an independent nation that should be supported while Putin tries to chop it up and impose his views on its government. Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #399,113
2/12/15 10:06:01 PM
|
It's only a lull before the spring offensive.
Words are cheap and Putin is a certifiable pathological liar!
Everyone, including the Russians, know they have troops and special forces in Ukraine. They deny this. The rebels have he most modern Russian weapons that were never before seen in Ukraine.
In a couple months the Russians will push to take Mariupol and on to build a land bridge to Crimea. Then they'll say the "rebels" just didn't follow Putin's advice.
The agreement is a charade. It's the Russian way.
Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
|
Post #399,116
2/12/15 10:50:12 PM
|
I would suspect that as well, but...
I think Vlad has been surprised by the economic sanctions. I think he thought the implicit fear of losing gas supplies would make the EU and NATO back off. But oil collapsed and the ruble continues to weaken (though it has stabilized a bit recently). What does Putin want? has a list. Maybe he just wants to appear to be a strong leader for domestic reasons. Maybe he has a grand plan to reconstitute a pseudo-USSR. Maybe he's demanding "respect". Dunno. The US and the EU still has a lot of economic sanctions knobs that can be turned, and NATO has had a relationship with Ukraine for a long time. The west doesn't have to fight Putin to make things painful for him. (And resisting the temptation to fight him may weaken him by making the "the West is trying to strangle innocent Mother Russia!1" rhetoric transparently silly.) I'm also reminded of China invading Vietnam to "teach it a lesson" back in 1979. They objectively lost in their aim of getting Vietnam out of Cambodia, but were able to declare victory after less than a month and get out. Putin should take that lesson and get out of Ukraine. I fear, though, that the longer this goes on, the more difficult he (and his puppet fighters in eastern Ukraine) will find it to make any political compromises. That's the main reason why I hope that stars are aligning to make this deal work. We'll see. Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #399,117
2/12/15 11:05:36 PM
|
Vlad is richer than Warren Buffett.
So he doesn't personally care about economic sanctions.
If he had a heart, someone from Kiev would get his daughter in London to drink some Polonium laced tea. But, it would make no difference.
There's virtually to way to oust him from power. Someone very close would need to do him in.
His greatest fear is to be ridiculed. Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
|
Post #399,121
2/13/15 4:50:47 AM
|
Interesting, that last..
I shoulda copped to that earlier (we're all amateur shrinks now/a necessity in the Land of the One-eyed sleepwalkers.)
Those who lust after That-many 000,000s Rubles/$$ (beyond just the ordinary cupidity of our inner-Nazi) are all-about conspicuous affluenza; clearly such sociopaths presume that envy of their obscene-scale loot will trump the disgust engendered by their hubris. (Throw in KGB.. his early-on Seminary-training. and always in the background: all those nukes he can command.)
Were his mask ever massively-pierced via general (thus local too) humiliation? ... ???
Methinks the Prez's official Head-of-State Psych-warfare cadre had best remind BHO that the phrase critical mass is not just about nukes per se: it's also ~ re Fahrenheit 451 kindling temp for his selling "The Russian Peeple" that Russia's Honor is at stake, and 100 Vindicator bombers are preparing to defend Mother Russia against these closing-in, conniving Yankee Imperialists.
I well recall October '62 .. and Khrushchev had a personal-fuze too ... it is a Lousy time for the dis-US to be so permeated with its current lunatics in places high and low :-/
Light a candle.. even if you think you don't believe in meta- anything.
|
Post #399,201
2/16/15 4:43:48 PM
|
The Economist weighs in.
About what one would expect, but seemingly sensible nonetheless: [...]
The next step is to craft a response as supple as the onslaught. Part of the trouble is that Mr Putin plays by different rules; indeed, for him, there are no inviolable rules, nor universal values, nor even cast-iron facts (such as who shot down flight MH17). There are only interests. His Russia has graduated from harassing ambassadors and assassinating critics to invasions. This is one of his assets: a readiness to stoop to methods the West cannot emulate without sullying itself.
The current version of this quandary is whether, if the latest ceasefire fails, to arm Ukraine. Proponents think defensive weapons would inflict a cost on Mr Putin for fighting on. But anyone who doubts his tolerance of mass casualties should recall his war in Chechnya. If arms really are to deter him, the West must be united and ready to match his inevitable escalation with still more powerful weapons (along, eventually, with personnel to operate them). Yet the alliance is split over the idea. Mr Putin portrays the war as a Western provocation: arming Ukraine would turn that from fantasy to something like fact, while letting him expose the limits of Western unity and its lack of resolve — prizes he cherishes. If fresh Russian aggression galvanises the alliance, arming Ukraine will become a more potent threat. Until that point, it would backfire.
A better strategy is to eschew his methods and rely on an asset that he, in turn, cannot match: a way of life that people covet. If that seems wishy-washy beside his tanks, remember that the crisis began with Ukrainians’ desire to tilt towards the EU — and Mr Putin’s determination to stop them. Better than arms, the West must urgently give Ukraine as much aid as it needs to build a state and realise that dream (and as much advice as it takes to ensure the cash is not misspent or stolen). The IMF deal announced on February 12th should be only a start. Mr Putin wants Ukraine to be a lesson in the perils of leaning West. It should instead be an exemplar of the rewards.
Just as urgently, those former Soviet countries that have joined Western institutions must be buttressed and reassured. If the case for sending arms to the Donbas is doubtful, that for basing NATO troops in the Baltics is overwhelming, however loudly Mr Putin squeals. Western leaders must make it clear, to him and their own people, that they will defend their allies, and the alliance — even if the struggle is covert and murky.
And it isn’t only its allies who appreciate the West’s virtues. So do many Russians, including shameless Putinists who denounce the West’s decadence but exploit its schools and stockmarkets. It is long past time for every Russian parliamentarian and senior official to join the sanctions list. Far from being relaxed as, after Minsk, fellow-travellers may suggest, sanctions must be tightened — and sanctions-busting curtailed (see article). In the end, they will prove a stronger lever than weapons.
At the same time, the West should use every available means to help ordinary Russians, including Russian-sympathisers in the Baltics and Ukraine, learn the bloody, venal truth about Mr Putin. It should let them know that Russia, a great nation dragged down a terrible path, will be embraced when it has rulers who treat the world, and their own people, with respect not contempt, however long that takes. It won't be easy, of course, especially in a country with a history of official corruption and a politically divided population. But playing whack-a-mole with Putin isn't the way to win. Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #399,209
2/16/15 7:54:46 PM
|
Odd, isn't it? how that last sentence applies to another, familiar country,
whose divisiveness also drags it towards a terrible path, (unless its citizenry regains control, soon enough.)
May the 21st not emulate the 20th Century, and Putin see a shrink (also ... in time.)
|
Post #399,217
2/16/15 9:26:57 PM
|
Yes, for $DEITY'S sake! The Victory of Consumerism will save us ALL!
It was, after all, responsible for the tearing down of the Berlin Wall! Reaganites of the World, UNITE!
|
Post #399,224
2/17/15 3:28:52 AM
|
{chortle} ..Yeah, it's tough, innit?
when you can't wave the Flag of any of the usual combatants: each wanting to "return to" some magical status-quo-ante (each tribe with own variant of Rose-color.)
(None of that worked out, of course; the plutocrats stole everything portable Or stationary, etc. But we must preserve Farmily Valuez ... and chestnuts roasting by an open fire.)
But THIS time, doing the same stupid shit: will turn out *differently.
* the planet will be noticeably warmer, that is... having gotten no respect ... amidst all the bills for more er, growth? was it.. and those pregnant sluts will have to work rilly hard even to find any birth-control equipment or service.
This just in via Democracy Now (Heh.. on that 'now' fantasy) But we Need such soft-lies..
Couple more cop murders: guy with a rock; another the details? m.e.g.o.; a guy's spine severely injured via a takedown; (he spoke neither English nor Cop--submission language.)
And elsewhere (pbs/news?) 400% incarceration rate increase over past 4 decades ... some have awakened from slumber long enough to query whether the facts: that the LCD of all perps is ... they are poor, and that this shit isn't working.. might change In another few decades, other methods might be tried. (Maybe when the avge. temper matches the average temper-ature?)
That is all for the day here in Sucky Murica/its final phase.
|
Post #399,218
2/16/15 9:48:17 PM
|
Right on, and thanks!
It's time to cut off Russia from SWIFT. For one thing, it would make it tougher for the cleptocracy to be robbing the banks of the world. The reputed cybertheft hit some 100 banks in 30 countries has added up to roughly a billion dollars just recently. Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
|
