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New Predictions.
Well, it's about 30 years ago - but a long lost friend working at the Navy Research Lab did a comparison. He looked out the window between 3 and 4 PM and predicted the same thing for the next day. He easily beat the weather service.

When someone says their conclusions are supported by complex computer models, I like to point out that literally billions of US $ have been spent on a complex computer model, supported by advanced satellites, the fastest computers in the world and some of the most talented programmers (probably inferior only to the guys hired for hacks and malware production). It cannot tell you accurately if it will rain tomorrow.
New Sometimes you can't just look out the window and get the info you need...
NRL:

The Navy has had requirements for predicting the ocean environment for its purposes including estimating acoustic propagation, placement of sonar arrays, determining currents for mine drift and burial, drift for search and rescue, and safety of operations on and under the ocean surface. NRL has enabled Navy operational ocean prediction of tactically relevant information.

To accomplish this task, Jacobs says three critical components are necessary to predict the open ocean environment. "The first is access to satellite observations that measure precise sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and ice concentration with in situ observations from public sources and Navy ships; second, numerical models representing the dynamical processes capable of understanding the physics of the ocean and numerical methods for efficiently representing those physics; and lastly, the third critical component is the technology to correct the numerical models using the observations through data assimilation." These components have been implemented at the Naval Oceanographic Office for daily global ocean prediction.

Within NCEP, the observational components from satellite and from NOAA buoys around U.S. coasts are available publicly. For the dynamical model, NCEP has adopted the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) numerical model system developed through the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP) that NAVOCEANO runs to construct seven-day forecasts each day of the year. The third critical piece provided to NCEP through the new agreement enables application of Navy technology to the civilian sector.

NOAA's NCEP has a mission to provide environment forecasts to the U.S. public and has provided meteorological information for many years. The new agreement will allow NCEP to use software developed by NRL to assimilate data necessary to maintain daily forecast accuracy that enables safe, at-sea operations, hazard mitigation, resource management, and emergency response. "This is an example of complementary missions across agencies that, through coordinated application, leads to protecting our service personnel, who ensure the high seas are safe, and protecting our resources and citizens at home." Jacobs said.


Your tax dollars at work! :-)

Cheers,
Scott.
     speaking of water coolers - (rcareaga) - (3)
         Use The Source, Luke! - (Ashton)
         Predictions. - (Andrew Grygus) - (1)
             Sometimes you can't just look out the window and get the info you need... - (Another Scott)

Gradualism only goes so far.
60 ms