Gold is too subject to things that can't be predicted and it's likely to get more volatile. E.g. I think much of the demand now is in China and India. That's great as long as their economies are growing; not so much if/when they suddenly stop. What if the NY Fed decides to sell its 6700 tons in gold holdings quickly?

Real estate in Detroit probably has a better trajectory in 10 years than gold. ;-)

If I had $100k that I had to invest in gold, I'd probably try to find some rare gold coins I liked. Not bullion; not double-eagles or whatever. Something that had a story behind it, something that is old and will get rarer over time. Of course, there's the risk of bubbles in the collectors markets, and dealer commissions can be huge. But it would be something more than just a lump of something with atomic number 79.

Even then, I'd figure I would have to hold on to them for 10 years or more to break even.

Just my $0.02. :-)

Cheers,
Scott.

What's going on in their heads?

There's always someone bigger and stronger out there. There's always someone craftier and stealthier out there. There's always someone more willing to be bribed or swayed with a sexual or chemical favor. There's always someone with more guns, grenades, and jails.

Gold is only useful as a personal hedge in the event of societal collapse if it helps you get somewhere that has a functioning society - or perhaps as a temporary store of value while society is rebuilt. When (essentially) everyone is desperate looking for food and water, shiny baubles aren't going to mean anything. Guns and gas and muscle are.

So, the idea that a pile of gold is going to save one when the economy collapses seems silly to me.

The idea that gold is a protection against hyperinflation is only marginally less sensible, it seems to me.

The Zimbabwe Dollar spiked at 65.8B ZWD to $1 in 2008. Gold's price in $US fell in 2008 If one were in Zimbabwe in 2008, the thing to have held was $US, not gold.

If not gold, what? Canned food? That eventually rots. Fallout shelters? There are costs of upkeep and maintenance, and when the 8 Horsemen come they're going to find you eventually. If they don't come, you will run out of supplies eventually (unless you're vastly wealthy you can't accumulate enough useful supplies). So, you just put them off a little.

Doesn't it make more sense for a person or family to try to plan for a reasonably likely future for the next 20-40 years (a little inflation, a little unemployment, a little technological change, a little climate change) and not assume that one particular outcome is likely? What will you do if you're wrong after having spent all of your savings on a lump of gold?

If the US economy goes down the toilet in a huge way, gold isn't going to be a protection from financial losses and chaos. Where would gold let you go? If one feels one has to invest in commodities or rare items because of fear of inflation or devaluation, one might as well put only a fraction of the money in "investing" in something that has more than monetary value (art, coins, stamps, cars, wine, etc.). It's still sorta silly (they don't pay interest, the resale market is small, there's risk of loss in fire and theft, risk that the items are not authentic, etc.) but there are ways of getting satisfaction from them other than watching the spot price (with luck) move up over time.

Gold buggery and disaster prepping just seems like another scam to scare people into giving up their money to someone who preys on ginned-up fears.

Cheers,
Scott.
(Who wonders if someone is selling Anti-FEMA Camp Copper Bracelets or Magnets yet...)