BI: China, Solar, Coal and Swanson's Law

A good read:

Swanson’s law predicted 20% price declines for every doubling of installed capacity. Since capacity was so low in the early 2000’s, doubling total world capacity a few times would cost just a few billion dollars.

The Chinese leadership turned the model on its head, and asked how much it would cost to get them to get Solar cheaper than coal.

I can imagine the conversation between the Chinese leadership and the engineers who were asking for funding.

“We have a looming environmental problem due to wanting much more electricity.”

“What are some possible solutions?”

“Solar could one day be cheaper and solve both the cost and pollution problems.”

“How much money do you need to find out?”

“A lot, about $10 billion”.

At this point the leadership fall on the floor laughing. China is a country where they build entire ghost cities with nobody in them. They build massive public transportation systems in 15 yearsbecause they can. Spending $10bn to find out if they can solve both energy and pollution was completely worth it to them.

It's funny how investments in clean energy can pay off, huh.

(via Atrios)

Cheers,
Scott.

Post #390,674 by Another Scott 6/11/14 10:32:26 PM Reply	BI: China, Solar, Coal and Swanson's Law A good read: Swanson’s law predicted 20% price declines for every doubling of installed capacity. Since capacity was so low in the early 2000’s, doubling total world capacity a few times would cost just a few billion dollars. The Chinese leadership turned the model on its head, and asked how much it would cost to get them to get Solar cheaper than coal. I can imagine the conversation between the Chinese leadership and the engineers who were asking for funding. “We have a looming environmental problem due to wanting much more electricity.” “What are some possible solutions?” “Solar could one day be cheaper and solve both the cost and pollution problems.” “How much money do you need to find out?” “A lot, about $10 billion”. At this point the leadership fall on the floor laughing. China is a country where they build entire ghost cities with nobody in them. They build massive public transportation systems in 15 yearsbecause they can. Spending $10bn to find out if they can solve both energy and pollution was completely worth it to them. It's funny how investments in clean energy can pay off, huh. (via Atrios) Cheers, Scott.
Post #390,676 by a6l6e6x 6/11/14 11:12:56 PM Reply	Their problem is that there is insufficient sunlight in China. The smog blocks it! Catch 22. Alex "There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov
Post #390,679 by Another Scott 6/12/14 12:14:55 AM Reply	:-)
Post #390,852 by Ashton 6/17/14 2:15:30 AM Reply	Catch 22: it's worse in Londonium (some streets) re Particulates, though Having opted for diesel over petrol for most-all buses, lorries, taxis: unintended consequences, 70,000 particles/cm³ on Oxford St. and similar spots.. (7000 or so, in a park a few blocks away.) (But presumably, their sunlight transmission is nothing like Beijing's.) That 70K # though.. makes them the Winnah! on the planet. {sigh} We're addicts and can't stop. Physics won't care. That should work out, one way or another.

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