Re: Multiple people at fault.

Post #349,765 by pwhysall 10/28/11 1:49:55 AM Reply	Re: Multiple people at fault. It's down to Google. They could have dictated this and that to the carriers, but in their dash to get Android out there on as many handsets as possible, they didn't bother putting a "and you must not fuck over your users whilst their phones are in contract" clause into whatever agreements they made. It's not like "mobile phone networks are a pack of grasping, chiselling, hateful shits who would sell their own children into slavery for $5 a month" is actually news. The big problem is security. Back in the day, phone OS security didn't matter two shits, because the worst thing that could happen was that someone made calls or sent texts on your dime. Now, with phones that do the internet (and the shopping thereupon) pervasively, it does. I think it behoves mobile OS suppliers to ensure that people can keep their phones up-to-date for the duration of the contract period. Practically speaking, that means two years.
Post #349,766 by static 10/28/11 2:30:55 AM Reply	Yes, mostly Google. Static Scribblings http://staticsan.blogspot.com/
Post #349,768 by Another Scott 10/28/11 7:21:52 AM Reply	Hindsight, etc. Android's still young, and doing well. My recollection is that Android was developed when many were worried that MS was going to find a way to monopolize phones the way they did PC OSes. Lots of people were suspicious of paying a MS-tax to anyone or giving anyone too much control of the platform. I think Google had to give up quite a bit of control to get buzz and rapidly growing market share for the platform. And that approach has worked remarkably well - http://images.androi...-Market-Share.jpg With the purchase of Motorola Mobility, the (at least nominal) locking down of the platform - http://www.engadget....-licensees-abide/ - that seems to be changing to some extent (and isn't unexpected at this end). The iPhone spoiled a lot of people and raised expectations in the smart-phone space. Nobody worried much about upgrading their Razr - they were happy if the flip still worked 2 years later. Now that Apple has shown that you can update the OS on a 2 year old phone (but not without some issues along the way - http://www.eweek.com...-Good-Fit-277996/ ) everyone wants the same thing on their non-Apple phone. As you say, the smart-phone platform should be updateable for 2 years going forward. But I don't think Google necessarily made a bad choice in not specifying that from the start. The platform needed to be able to evolve quickly. Remember that the original iPhone couldn't run non-Apple apps - http://www.macworld.....cfm?newsid=16926 - things change. So, it's a tradeoff for users and developers. They want a huge, rapidly growing ecosystem, but they want uniformity. They want the latest and greatest while not being 'forced' to buy new stuff every year or two. Handset makers want a huge market but want freedom to make unique customizations while still controlling costs. It'll be interesting to see what Google's MM comes up with, and how they'll "supercharge" the platform while still keeping it open. My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
Post #349,776 by static 10/28/11 8:36:33 AM Reply	Good points all. Google has definitely spoiled Apple's party, at the expense largely of everyone else as well as not taking on some of the more visible problems with the mobile phone industry. Buying Motorola gives them a manufacturing platform. But I have to wonder who is in Google's sights first: the carriers or the other OEMs. I've gotten the feeling before the HTC would rather not kowtow quite so easily to the carriers, but maybe they need someone bigger to help blaze the way? Wade. Static Scribblings http://staticsan.blogspot.com/
Post #349,777 by pwhysall 10/28/11 8:57:25 AM 10/28/11 9:08:28 AM Reply	Re: Hindsight, etc. Android's still young, and doing well. There's two sides to the Android marketshare question. Firstly, individual OEMs don't give two shits about "Android" marketshare; they only care about "HTC" or "Samsung" marketshare. This is the difference when talking about iOS vs. Android: every iOS sale is money in the bank for Apple, but every Android sale isn't money in the bank for a called "Android". Secondly, who is actually making any money out of Android? Google don't even list it as an item in their results, which is pretty damning. HTC and Samsung are doing okay-ish, LG are fucked, Motorola Mobility got bought by Google (but were fucked), Sony Ericsson have split, Nokia and RIM aren't doing Android (except RIM, who sort of are, on the Playbook, but it's not 100% compatible, so let's say they're not); who does that leave? Hard numbers: 1. Apple continue to hoover up more than half the profits of the entire mobile phone (note, not smartphone, phone) market. 2. Microsoft will get paid somewhere between $500M and $1B this coming year. For Android sales. 3. Apple's iPhone business is bigger than Google. All of Google. No iPhone has ever been out in the cold relative to the current revision of the OS within two years. Asymco's AMP Index and supporting data show just how much of an 800lb gorilla Apple is. http://www.asymco.co...amp-index-for-q2/ I don't think Motorola will magically be able to create compelling handsets just because Google bought them. The Android handset market is a desperate, volatile place: at the high end, it's a continuous arms race to produce the lightest, thinnest phone with the fastest processor, the biggest screen, the most storage. And then to do it all over again six months later, only to see whatever sales figures any particular handset achieves get shat all over by the latest iPhone. At the bottom end, it's a vicious dogfight with razor-thin margins on handsets that cost £100 retail. It's really fascinating; it's almost as if the companies involved can't make any serious money at it, but they can't afford not to try. Edit: Apple Results. iPhone revenue $13.3B (total revenue $28.5B) http://images.apple....f/q411datasum.pdf Google Results. Overall revenue $9.7B. http://investor.goog...rnings_slides.pdf Edited by pwhysall Oct. 28, 2011, 09:08:28 AM EDT Expand All History

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