I think Obama will press forward with paying the debt using the constitutional argument if it comes to that. But only as an absolute last resort, when we hit the ceiling and Congress has done nothing.

He will not give Congress any clear sign that he is going to do so because that will just encourage them to dither more. To have any chance of breaking the deadlock he needs to have them sweat it a bit. Plus, he can then say that he didn't want to do it, it was only a last resort to keep the government from collapsing, making it much harder for the Republicans to pin the debt issue on him.

Jay