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New "Many fear ..."
BTP doesn't ordinarily focus on blogs, but Paul Krugman's blog is widely read, and most of us expect him to be right, so it is a big deal when he gets an important point wrong. This morning he told readers that part of the explanation for Japan's decline in per capita income relative to the U.S. is due to its aging population. He argues that his has led to a drop in the percentage of working age people in the population, which has led to a drop in per capita output.

A quick trip over to the OECD's data base tells a somewhat different story.

http://www.cepr.net/...cs-and-stagnation
--

Drew
New Many expect him to be right
and he often is not. He's popular.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
New I blame ACORN.
Are we to infer that you agree with Dean now?

(I think Paul and Dean mostly agree - there's a little difference in emphasis. See Krugman's follow-up - http://krugman.blogs...in-translation-2/ - and note he cites Baker in a later post - http://krugman.blogs...e-bond-purchases/ ).

"Often" usually means more than once. It should be easy to give us more examples of Krugman being wrong. Care to enlighten us?

Cheers,
Scott.
New Infer nothing
and I'll endeavor to keep a running tally from here on out.

Krugman spends a lot of time stumping for the Democrats and thus supporting their agenda even in times where it doesn't warrant that support, simply because he feels the Republican option is worse.

He's stated that many times in his columns.

The reality is in between...but he's picked a side.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
New Krugman almost always shows his work...
New Yes he does
and he's correct sometimes as well. His position of going hard on the chinese against buying bonds, for example...is correct. (its one of those things that will help beat down the dollar)...

His problem, as I said, is he has picked sides and it affects his analysis.

He was on record saying Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do with the housing bubble, even though they were buying close to 50% of the subprime backed securities at their high point.

I'll keep a running tab from now on, if it will make you happy ;-)
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
New Happiness is good.
Don't do it for me, though. ;-)

http://www.nytimes.c...on/14krugman.html

But here’s the thing: Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do with the explosion of high-risk lending a few years ago, an explosion that dwarfed the S.& L. fiasco. In fact, Fannie and Freddie, after growing rapidly in the 1990s, largely faded from the scene during the height of the housing bubble.

Partly that’s because regulators, responding to accounting scandals at the companies, placed temporary restraints on both Fannie and Freddie that curtailed their lending just as housing prices were really taking off. Also, they didn’t do any subprime lending, because they can’t: the definition of a subprime loan is precisely a loan that doesn’t meet the requirement, imposed by law, that Fannie and Freddie buy only mortgages issued to borrowers who made substantial down payments and carefully documented their income.

So whatever bad incentives the implicit federal guarantee creates have been offset by the fact that Fannie and Freddie were and are tightly regulated with regard to the risks they can take. You could say that the Fannie-Freddie experience shows that regulation works.


Don't believe Krugman?

http://www.calculate...gman-on-gses.html

Fannie and Freddie had about as much to with the "explosion of high-risk lending" as they could get away with. We are all fortunate that they couldn't get away with all that much of it. It is a fact that their market share dropped like a brick in the early years of this century, except of course for years like 2003, when fixed rates dropped to cyclical lows, refis boomed, and GSE market share shot up again, only to plummet in the years following during the purchase boom.

But they didn't like losing their market share, and they pushed the envelope on credit quality as far as they could inside the constraints of their charter: they got into "near prime" programs (Fannie's "Expanded Approval," Freddie's "A Minus") that, at the bottom tier, were hard to distinguish from regular old "subprime" except--again--that they were overwhelmingly fixed-rate "non-toxic" loan structures. They got into "documentation relief" in a big way through their automated underwriting systems, offering "low doc" loans that had a few key differences from the really wretched "stated" and "NINA" crap of the last several years, but occasionally the line between the two was rather thin. Again, though, whatever they bought in the low-doc world was overwhelmingly fixed rate (or at least longer-term hybrid amortizing ARMs), lower-LTV, and, of course, back in the day, of "conforming" loan balance, which kept the worst of the outright fraudulent loans out of the pile. Lots of people lied about their income (with or without collusion by their lender) in order to borrow $500,000 to buy an overpriced house in a bubble market. They weren't borrowing $500,000 from the GSEs.


(But we've been through this before, too...)

FWIW.

Cheers,
Scott.
New Yes we have
and they were making the market. They were complicit. Maybe not as much as they would have liked...but they were there..up to nearly 50% of the bundled securities in 03/04.

They weren't in the worst of them, that's true..otherwise they would have fully collapsed like BS...though I'm not sure what difference it would have made since we bailed them all out...not just Fred and Fan.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
New Speaking of which...
http://krugman.blogs...09/13/correction/

;-)

Cheers,
Scott.
New either way he is full
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Acquited

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are members of a long list of individuals and entities including Gary Condit, Tom Delay, Michael Jackson, Rod Blagojevich and JonBenet Ramsey's parents. These are folks who were unjustly tried and convicted in the popular press essentially on the grounds that they were creepy or otherwise unsavory characters.

As I hope to continue to argue, being creepy, a bad person, or even a usual suspect does not make one automatically guilty of any particular crime. In this case government subsidies in the housing market are a bad idea for a host of reasons and have been for years. I will testify to this with vigor and passion.

However, that does not mean that Fannie or Freddie caused the housing bubble. Indeed, by my count they were among the biggest victims of it.



source: http://www.ritholtz....reddie-acquitted/




"Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from."

-- E.L. Doctorow
New quick block out the name, nother might get the vapors :-)
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New Do you really think so?
     The dangers of turning Japanese - (Another Scott) - (18)
         It makes you wonder. - (static) - (3)
             There are a lot of bottled dragons there. - (Another Scott) - (2)
                 Re #1: internet brides -NT - (drook) - (1)
                     Ok for kids with jobs and money. :-/ -NT - (Another Scott)
         Re: The dangers of turning Japanese - (jay) - (13)
             "Many fear ..." - (drook) - (12)
                 Many expect him to be right - (beepster) - (9)
                     I blame ACORN. - (Another Scott) - (8)
                         Infer nothing - (beepster) - (7)
                             Krugman almost always shows his work... -NT - (Another Scott) - (6)
                                 Yes he does - (beepster) - (5)
                                     Happiness is good. - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                         Yes we have - (beepster)
                                     Speaking of which... - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                         either way he is full -NT - (boxley)
                                     Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Acquited - (lincoln)
                 quick block out the name, nother might get the vapors :-) -NT - (boxley) - (1)
                     Do you really think so? -NT - (altmann)

Must be what keeps your hair up.
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