I think he's got a better shot than Mitt. Seriously.
Yes, I mean to win the Republican nomination. He seems to have a lot more support of the political insiders in the Republican party than Mitt. That counts for a lot. The thought that Rudy can attract some people outside the party means a lot (even more than purity) to those folks.
Also, Mitt may be laying a foundation for a later run while Rudy doesn't have much choice but to try his best to win now. How could Rudy run on 9/11 again in 2012 if he doesn't win this time?
Mitt seems too polished and too weird for people to get excited about, IMO.
Cheers,
Scott.