Most of us (according to my co-worker poll) most certainly did believe it was a "refund" from the previous year's taxes. After all, it was called a "refund" wasn't it? And you can't refund in advance. The words don't work that way.
Besides which, if the amount of the "refund" is based on what you paid in taxes, it's only valid if you pay mostly the same amount of taxes in each of the two years. If that's the case, I'd be glad to keep paying the same amount each year from now on, whether my income increases or not.
But if my "refund" was calculated on last year's income, and my tax rate this year is based on this year's income, there's a fair chance I will lose more from the higher rate and higher salary then they calculated I was owed based on last year's figures.