Be careful with those stats

I could speculate....

Perhaps the mercury in your son's blood was too high to be just from his vaccines. Perhaps mistakes were made. Perhaps they discarded data on your son. I can't explain what happened. I'm sure it's very frustrating and aggravating not to know. :-(

A link to the Pediatrics article that has the study, their methodology, etc., is [link|http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/reprint/118/1/e139|here]. I don't know if you need a subscription to access it.

RESULTS. We found 180 children (82.8% males) with a pervasive developmental disorder diagnosis who attended the surveyed schools, yielding a prevalence for pervasive developmental disorder of 64.9 per 10 000. The prevalence for specific pervasive developmental disorder subtypes were, for autistic disorder: 21.6 of 10 000; for pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified: 32.8 of 10 000; and for Asperger syndrome: 10.1 of 10 000. A statistically significant linear increase in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence was noted during the study period. The prevalence of pervasive developmental disorder in thimerosal-free birth cohorts was significantly higher than that in thimerosal-exposed cohorts (82.7 of 10 000 vs 59.5 of 10 000). Using logistic regression models of the prevalence data, we found no significant effect of thimerosal exposure used either as a continuous or a categorical variable. Thus, thimerosal exposure was unrelated to the increasing trend in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence. These results were robust when additional analyses were performed to address possible limitations because of the ecological nature of the data and to evaluate potential effects of misclassification on exposure or diagnosis. Measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage averaged 93% during the study interval with a statistically significant decreasing trend from 96.1% in the older birth cohorts (1988-89) to ~92.4% in younger birth cohorts (1996-1998). Thus, pervasive developmental disorder rates significantly increased when measles-mumps-rubella vaccination uptake rates significantly decreased. In addition, pervasive developmental disorder prevalence increased at the same rate before and after the introduction in 1996 of the second measles-mumps-rubella dose, suggesting no increased risk of pervasive developmental disorder associated with a 2-measles-mumps-rubella dosing schedule before age 2 years. Results held true when additional analyses were performed to test for the potential effects of misclassification on exposure or diagnostic status. Thus, no relationship was found between pervasive developmental disorder rates and 1- or 2-dose measles-mumps-rubella immunization schedule.

I know a little of what you're going through with your son. My older brother has Autism. It's tough to deal with.

Hang in there.

Cheers,
Scott.

Post #284,694 by ubernostrum 5/15/07 7:27:50 AM Reply	Be careful with those stats The "one in 154" number, as I've explained to Ashton, isn't quite what you're making it out to be. \r\n\r\n Also, the part of the original paper which reported a link between the MMR vaccine and autism has since been retracted by the authors, citing a lack of evidence to back the claim that MMR and autism are linked, and numerous independent attempts to demonstrate a connection have failed to yield any such results. --\r\nYou cooin' with my bird?
Post #286,688 by Another Scott 6/10/07 11:52:51 PM Reply	Cecil weighs in. [link\|http://www.straightdope.com/columns/070608.html\|The Straight Dope] on vaccines and Autism. Cheers, Scott.
Post #286,698 by jake123 6/11/07 3:53:44 AM Reply	Intersting From the straight dope page: "A British study of 5,763 children in 2004 showed only a statistically insignificant link between MMR vaccine and autism; a study of 27,749 children in Montreal found no MMR link to autism or related problems." (Emphasis mine.) My son actually participated in that. His blood was sampled twice, and was to be sampled a third time. His first sample contained a lot of mercury, and they said they wanted to double check it. They said the same about the second sample, and wanted to take a third, and then... they changed their minds.
Post #286,778 by Another Scott 6/11/07 5:00:19 PM Reply	I can't explain what you experienced. I could speculate.... Perhaps the mercury in your son's blood was too high to be just from his vaccines. Perhaps mistakes were made. Perhaps they discarded data on your son. I can't explain what happened. I'm sure it's very frustrating and aggravating not to know. :-( A link to the Pediatrics article that has the study, their methodology, etc., is [link\|http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/reprint/118/1/e139\|here]. I don't know if you need a subscription to access it. RESULTS. We found 180 children (82.8% males) with a pervasive developmental disorder diagnosis who attended the surveyed schools, yielding a prevalence for pervasive developmental disorder of 64.9 per 10 000. The prevalence for specific pervasive developmental disorder subtypes were, for autistic disorder: 21.6 of 10 000; for pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified: 32.8 of 10 000; and for Asperger syndrome: 10.1 of 10 000. A statistically significant linear increase in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence was noted during the study period. The prevalence of pervasive developmental disorder in thimerosal-free birth cohorts was significantly higher than that in thimerosal-exposed cohorts (82.7 of 10 000 vs 59.5 of 10 000). Using logistic regression models of the prevalence data, we found no significant effect of thimerosal exposure used either as a continuous or a categorical variable. Thus, thimerosal exposure was unrelated to the increasing trend in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence. These results were robust when additional analyses were performed to address possible limitations because of the ecological nature of the data and to evaluate potential effects of misclassification on exposure or diagnosis. Measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage averaged 93% during the study interval with a statistically significant decreasing trend from 96.1% in the older birth cohorts (1988-89) to ~92.4% in younger birth cohorts (1996-1998). Thus, pervasive developmental disorder rates significantly increased when measles-mumps-rubella vaccination uptake rates significantly decreased. In addition, pervasive developmental disorder prevalence increased at the same rate before and after the introduction in 1996 of the second measles-mumps-rubella dose, suggesting no increased risk of pervasive developmental disorder associated with a 2-measles-mumps-rubella dosing schedule before age 2 years. Results held true when additional analyses were performed to test for the potential effects of misclassification on exposure or diagnostic status. Thus, no relationship was found between pervasive developmental disorder rates and 1- or 2-dose measles-mumps-rubella immunization schedule. I know a little of what you're going through with your son. My older brother has Autism. It's tough to deal with. Hang in there. Cheers, Scott.

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