Worries about possible recession next year.

Post #269,167 by Another Scott 10/1/06 10:14:21 PM Reply	Worries about possible recession next year. [link\|http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahY7_Y5RkMVk&refer=worldwide\|Bloomberg]: Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has slowed more dramatically than most economists expected just a few weeks ago, leaving it more vulnerable to a recession. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and AllianceBernstein Holding LP in New York have cut their growth estimates for the just-ended third quarter to an annual rate of 2 percent or less. They don't foresee much, if any, improvement in the fourth quarter: Auto-production cuts and slumping home sales are likely to overwhelm any boost the economy gets from lower gasoline prices, they say. ``We're decelerating fairly significantly,'' says Peter Hooper, a former Federal Reserve official who's now chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. He sees annual growth below 2 percent in the second half. The economy expanded at a 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter and 5.6 percent in the first. Growth is getting closer to what Macroeconomic Advisers LLP President Chris Varvares describes as the ``stall speed,'' where an unexpected shock such as a terrorist strike or a hurricane might be enough to trigger a recession. A mathematical model of the economy developed by Federal Reserve economist Jonathan Wright puts the chances of a recession over the next year at about 40 percent. [...] The next GDP report from the [link\|http://bea.gov\|Bureau of Economic Analysis] will be Wednesday October 27, 2006 at 8:30 am. They'll be preliminary 3rd quarter numbers. Just in time for the election. It'll be interesting to see how they turn out. Cheers, Scott.
Post #269,168 by admin 10/1/06 10:27:28 PM Reply	Kinda hard to blame this one on Clinton. Regards, -scott anderson "Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson..."
Post #269,170 by bepatient 10/1/06 10:30:39 PM Reply	Don't we have to have it first? Then we can blame it on somebody. Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry._{Adrian Belew}
Post #269,172 by Another Scott 10/1/06 10:39:09 PM Reply	If it happens, ... Do you doubt that the Republicans will say that it's somehow Clinton's fault? "The economy was going great until Bill Clinton blew up at Chris Wallace and spooked everyone. It's all his fault!" Or, "It's the Democrats fault for not voting for the permanent repeal of the Death Tax! Unless we cut taxes further, the economy will get weaker. We must reduced taxes now!" Or, ... You don't actually think that the Bush Administration would accept responsibility for a recession on their watch, do you? Cheers, Scott. (Who has been surprised the economy has done as well has it has, considering the trade deficit, budget deficit, Katrina, oil price increases, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, etc., etc., etc.)
Post #269,174 by bepatient 10/1/06 10:47:01 PM Reply	Nope No doubt...same as I don't doubt the opposition to blame Bush. Thats life inside the beltway. Takes a boatload more than just the Pres to actually do anything to the econ. And given your screed, it is surprising...but some of those things take some time before they start dragging on the growth rate. Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry._{Adrian Belew}
Post #269,176 by admin 10/1/06 10:55:47 PM Reply	But that's why I commented. More than the Pres, certainly. But they've had the House and Senate, too, for quite some time now. There's really no one else to blame as far as policies go, and if the war is one of the factors then hell yeah you can lay some blame on the Pres and his administration. He's the Decider, after all. Regards, -scott anderson "Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson..."
Post #269,177 by bepatient 10/1/06 11:03:45 PM Reply	No argument Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry._{Adrian Belew}
Post #269,178 by admin 10/1/06 11:08:03 PM Reply	I'm a lot more credulous of blame claims... ...when one side or the other has had control for more than one Presidential term. Regards, -scott anderson "Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson..."
Post #269,173 by admin 10/1/06 10:42:34 PM Reply	Well, obviously. Just saying, though. Regards, -scott anderson "Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson..."
Post #269,175 by bepatient 10/1/06 10:47:24 PM Reply	:-) Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry._{Adrian Belew}
Post #269,169 by tonytib 10/1/06 10:30:22 PM Reply	I wouldn't be surprised especially given that the housing bubble is starting to unravel. A mild recession sooner is better than a big one later. --Tony
Post #269,193 by boxley 10/2/06 9:52:27 AM Reply	wouldnrt worry about it, the war spending hasnt started the inevitable inflationary spiral yet.That should stave off anything but a mild recession. thanx, bill Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
Post #269,238 by Ashton 10/2/06 4:21:31 PM 10/2/06 4:22:56 PM Reply	..til some of the paper-holders start calling 'em in. Edited by Ashton Oct. 2, 2006, 04:22:56 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #269,247 by folkert 10/2/06 6:07:18 PM Reply	They'll just be ignored when they do. -- [link\|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net\|greg], [link\|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry\|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ *i_wethey* Freedom is not FREE. Yeah, but 10s of Trillions of US Dollars? SELECT * FROM scog WHERE ethics > 0; 0 rows returned.

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