Post #264,878
8/15/06 8:00:07 AM
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The Lebanese government allows Hezbollah to keep weapons
[link|http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/750448.html|Lebanon government compromise would allow Hezbollah to keep hidden weapons in south]
A compromise agreement now being hammered out between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government would allow the Shi'ite guerillas to keep hidden weapons in south Lebanon, the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported on Tuesday.
While Hezbollah would need to keep the weapons it possesses south of the Litani River hidden, an agreement for areas north of the river would be "left to a long term solution," the paper reported.
If the proposed compromise is accepted Tuesday by the Lebanese government, it would violate the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 ending the war in Lebanon. The resolution rules that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL may be the only armed forces in the territory between the Litani River south to the Israeli border.
So much for the UN Resolution. After less then a week, UN Resolution 1701 is going the same way as UN Resolution 1559, another UN Resolution not enforced.
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Post #264,895
8/15/06 9:26:01 AM
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No surprise
No surprise there. The people involved where idiots for putting immediate disarmament of Hezbollah in the terms of the truce.
While the eventual disarming of Hezbollah is necessary, it will not be quick or easy. There is a lot of ground to cover in terms of convincing both Hezbollah and Lebanon that it is really a good idea. And the actual disarmament will take years.
Jay
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Post #264,899
8/15/06 9:49:20 AM
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"Years" == "never"
Former mid-east advisor to six National Security Directors made a point on the radio yesterday. Hezbollah is not the armed faction of a larger movement. It formed as an armed unit. It's entire identity is that of an armed unit. To say "disarm Hezbollah" is the same as saying "eliminate Hezbollah".
While you could argue semantics, I expect the Hezbollahi[1] would agree with the sentiment.
[1] Heard that term for the first time yesterday.
===
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Post #264,903
8/15/06 10:30:24 AM
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Yeahbut.
While it's true that Hezbollah was started as a military movement, they are part of the government and Nasrallah (I'd love to see the etymology of that name) has larger political aims. Witness the speculation that he will try to use the recent events to gain more political power and the potential for civil war in Lebanon if he pushes too hard.
I can't help but think back to Sadat and the 1973 war. While neither side really won that war, Sadat forced Israel to recognize the ability of Egypt to fight them to a standstill. Shortly thereafter, serious peace negotiations began which ended up with Camp David, etc. Many argue that Camp David would have never happened without the 1973 war.
It would be nice to imagine a similar outcome in this case, but the circumstances and the rhetoric are very different. Neither side is talking seriously about a political solution. Perhaps a way will be found to spin so that Israel acknowledges that future conflicts can't be solved by Israel's imposition of its military, and perhaps Hezbollah will take the prestige it's gained and direct it toward improving the lot of Shias in Lebanon rather than picking fights with Israel. Perhaps...
I fear though that Nasrallah will view the outcome as a complete vindication and will think that he has nothing to lose by ratcheting up the conflict again in a few weeks or months. Especially if the arguments with Iran start to become heated again...
:-(
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #264,906
8/15/06 10:52:12 AM
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Oh, it'll escalate again
Another point made in the same interview was that Assad is looking for payback for the expulsion of Syrian troops from Lebanon. By funding Hezbollah, he can wage war on Israel while Lebanon takes the brunt of the retaliation. Win-win.
===
Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link|http://DocHope.com|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats].
[link|http://DocHope.com|http://DocHope.com]
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Post #265,010
8/15/06 8:47:22 PM
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Re: Yeahbut.
I fear though that Nasrallah will view the outcome as a complete vindication ... If they are taking a cue from Shrub's presumptions about the meaning of an election 'dead heat' as: mandate. And.. why should they not fix on our convenient example of 21st Century Leadership? Oh and :-/
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Post #265,126
8/17/06 6:22:50 AM
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The difference between Nasrallah and Sadat is ...
that Sadat was not a religious fundamentalist. Sadat did not feel a religious imperative to destroy Israel. Therefore, when he felt it was in Egypt's interest to make peace with Israel he did. Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad on the other hand, are Islamic fundamentalists and real believers. They really believe that Islam should rule the world and that Israel has no right to exist on Muslim lands. They are not going to compromise on their religious principles and therefore there is little chance for real peace.
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Post #264,908
8/15/06 11:09:14 AM
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There will be something called Hezbollah
Former mid-east advisor to six National Security Directors made a point on the radio yesterday. Hezbollah is not the armed faction of a larger movement. It formed as an armed unit. It's entire identity is that of an armed unit. To say "disarm Hezbollah" is the same as saying "eliminate Hezbollah". In a sense yes, but I expect Hezbollah to survive as a political movement long after it ceases to be a military group. It will be very different, but there will be a group called Hezbollah. I looked up some of the details of the UN resolution. The resolution, read litterally, requires Hezbollah to disarm, then Israel to pull out and then Lebanon and the UN will move in as Israel moves out. The odds of that happening are zero. For this to work people are going to have to ignore the exact wording of the resolution and do what can work. Jay
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Post #264,918
8/15/06 12:30:09 PM
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Even if they forced Hezbollah to turn over the weapons....
it would just go underground. (This would be worse for Israel, imo. At least Israel can claim that their fighting an organized body rather than crazy individuals)
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Post #265,029
8/16/06 2:59:48 AM
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The Israeli government allows the IDF to keep theirs
What's your point?
Peter
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Post #265,125
8/17/06 6:16:52 AM
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That UN Resolution 1701 specifically called ...
for the disarming of Hezbollah (as did UN Resolution 1559) and the resolution is being violated less then a week after it passed.
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Post #265,129
8/17/06 7:07:22 AM
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Israel complaining of UN resolution violations...
...is a pot/kettle chromatography accusation of epic proportions.
Peter
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Post #265,243
8/18/06 12:43:04 AM
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That's a bingo!
Alex
When fascism comes to America, it'll be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross. -- Sinclair Lewis
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