I follow the semi business daily.

For one, using 2000 as a base year is questionable - in 2000, semi equipment sales were something like 40% more than the previous year. Companies were hiring like crazy.

Then the dot-bomb crash came. Almost every company's sales were down by at least 30%, some by 90% (see Credence). The companies have been scared since then, and it's hard to blame them.

Another point is that the US doesn't exactly dominate the fab tool business. Yes, Applied Materials is the gorilla of the industry, but Tokyo Electron is #2. And the big three lithography vendors are European (ASML) and Japanese (Nikon, Canon).

Also, the US fab tool industry has had a up and down history. It did very poorly in the 1980's, but made a come back in the 1990's.

Finally, China is an important market, but it's not even close to the big customers - Intel, Samsung, TSMC, etc. Even when all the new, currently building Chinese fabs are complete, China will be less than 10% of world capacity.

--Tony