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New "Surprise Attack" covered this.
[link|http://times.discovery.com/tvlistings/episode.jsp?episode=1&cpi=109122&gid=0&channel=DTC|Why Intelligence Fails: Suprise Attack] on the Discovery Channel. The biggest reasons why it fails are: 1) Refusal to consider new threats, and 2) Hubris.

"Japan won't attack us, because ..." "Egypt won't attack us, because ..." "Bin Laden won't use airplanes to attack us, because ..."

Cheeers,
Scott.
New Time to rename CIA to CDA
You don't gather intelligence, you gather data. You use intelligence to analyze the data and decide what to do with it. (Okay, you should do that.) To talk about "the latest intelligence on Iraqi weapons capabilities" makes no sense.

Now that I've thought about this some -- I noticed it a while ago, but didn't attach too much significance -- I'm probably going to notice how badly it skews our interpretation of public statements from those in the "intelligence community".
===

Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link|http://DocHope.com|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats].
[link|http://DocHope.com|http://DocHope.com]
     It's contagious - (drewk) - (30)
         Trusted applications - (warmachine) - (29)
             For about five seconds ... - (drewk) - (2)
                 Companies sticking to standards: SQL anyone? -NT - (warmachine)
                 DPM -NT - (warmachine)
             You see no technical problem because you're an idiot - (ben_tilly) - (25)
                 Your sarcasm detector is broken. -NT - (Another Scott) - (3)
                     D'oh -NT - (ben_tilly)
                     Severely. - (admin) - (1)
                         I'm tired. It happens. -NT - (ben_tilly)
                 Emulators and SDKs only run trusted, signed code... - (warmachine) - (15)
                     He wasn't being sarcastic! - (broomberg) - (14)
                         He was too! -NT - (Another Scott) - (2)
                             He's doing it very deadpan if he is -NT - (broomberg) - (1)
                                 Well, Duh. -NT - (Another Scott)
                         Peter's right. Americans don't get sarcasm. - (admin) - (3)
                             So we need a sarcasm compiler - (Silverlock) - (2)
                                 ICLRPD (new thread) - (imqwerky)
                                 And, of course, you'll submit it to the OS vendor... -NT - (jb4)
                         Course I was being sarcastic! - (warmachine) - (6)
                             Don't forget Homeland Security. -NT - (Another Scott)
                             Send it to InfoWorld when you're done. -NT - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                 No thanks. Anyone is free to steal my scenario. -NT - (warmachine)
                             Now you *are* smoking something - (drewk) - (2)
                                 "Surprise Attack" covered this. - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                     Time to rename CIA to CDA - (drewk)
                 Make it part of the compile process. -NT - (broomberg) - (3)
                     Like what Kernigan did with his self fixing compiler? - (folkert) - (2)
                         Nope - (broomberg) - (1)
                             Wonderful idea! - (ben_tilly)
                 <muntz>Ha ha</muntz> -NT - (pwhysall)

tar -C /usr/local/dev/zope/import zxf lrpdisms.tar.gz
54 ms