[link|http://times.discovery.com/tvlistings/episode.jsp?episode=1&cpi=109122&gid=0&channel=DTC|Why Intelligence Fails: Suprise Attack] on the Discovery Channel. The biggest reasons why it fails are: 1) Refusal to consider new threats, and 2) Hubris.
"Japan won't attack us, because ..." "Egypt won't attack us, because ..." "Bin Laden won't use airplanes to attack us, because ..."
Cheeers,
Scott.