Think about the leverage of TW/AOL and their ability

Post #258,310 by bepatient 6/9/06 2:32:17 PM Reply	Think about the leverage of TW/AOL and their ability to throttle content to their customers from Google, simply because they signed a deal with MSN. What if Microsoft buys Comcast? What guarantee does their competition have to free and unhindered access. If net neutrality is not guaranteed, the next takeover target of google, microsoft and the big players will be backbone providers...then things will get really ugly and the internet as we know it will be dead dead dead. If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #258,313 by jake123 6/9/06 2:46:59 PM Reply	It'll be dead dead dead in the US but it won't be dead dead dead. --\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
Post #258,315 by drewk 6/9/06 3:18:15 PM Reply	Can be dead dead dead here soon as more people do DNS We've been working real hard here in the U.S. to make ourselves unnecessary components to every kind of business we're in. It's only a matter of time before the rest of the world realized it. === Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link\|http://DocHope.com\|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats]. [link\|http://DocHope.com\|http://DocHope.com]
Post #258,339 by ben_tilly 6/9/06 5:58:41 PM Reply	I've thought about it As I said, that's Google's worry about the situation. However I really don't think that desire to do that is a primary motivation for the telcos. If it was, then they'd be doing it already. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #258,342 by Simon_Jester 6/9/06 6:14:34 PM Reply	They'll try...and fail. Telecoms should beware. Google, Microsoft and Ebay are king and the law protects the Telecom and Cable companies -- not the content provider. Telecoms want to charge more for higher bandwidth services. Fine...lets assume they do so and charge Google, Microsoft and Ebay more. Ebay screams bloody murder. Cuts off all access to IP address from said Telecom. Their users (and anyone going through their pipes) can't reach Ebay. An economic hit for Ebay as they lose customers (who struggle to find new internet providers) and the Telecoms drop their ISP connections to customers and provide only Trunk services. The Telecoms chortle with glee. They're making more and not having to deal with customers anymore (less cost). Then Google demands access at 1/3 cost. Telecoms are agast! Cut costs for Google? Microsoft announces Micro-Fiber...a new backbone connecting several major ISPs (AOL, MSN and Earthlink) -- which incidently match the current Telecoms backbone. (Microsoft has how much cash on hand?) Google recontacts the Telecoms. 1/6 profit is better than no profit (which is what they face if Google goes with Micro-Fiber...and is thinking of it). Telecoms pray for a turf war between Microsoft and Google....but Ebay and Google both decide that Micro-Fiber is far cheaper (and Google is considering their own Goo-Fiber if costs increase too much) 3 years later, Telecoms backbone is known for a high speed connection to a collection of poorly run p0rn sites and hacker-wares. The Government is called in to clean up these sites and a judge determines that if Telecoms can be fined if they don't clean up their act. Things go downhill from there for the Telecoms.
Post #258,358 by ben_tilly 6/9/06 10:22:37 PM Reply	Nice dream Won't work. The problem is not backbone. The problem is the last mile. And building a network to compete with the telecoms is expensive to build. With cable or telephone it averages about $1500/house. That figure is fairly constant across many cities. Microsoft's infamous cash reserves would not suffice to create a competing network out of thin air. Secondly companies are pragmatic. If Comcast slows eBay's traffic, it would be suicide for eBay to retaliate by blocking Comcast outright. Because most Comcast customers are locked in to Comcast in the near future, they are not locked in to eBay. And if eBay voluntarily gave up a large share of its market, eBay would suddenly be faced with not being the market leader. This would get very ugly, very fast. And even in the unlikely event that eBay succeeded in forcing Comcast to change its bullying ways, eBay would have just opened the door for a competitor (eg Amazon) to take over the online auction business. No, Google et al are worried because the telecom companies ARE left with the power in this relationship, and everyone knows it. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #258,393 by Simon_Jester 6/10/06 9:07:32 AM Reply	There is a risk there.... but it's not the last mile that is the problem. We've shown that ISPs can handle the last mile easily enough. I've got friends that started (and sold off) their ISP business. I've got one now that's doing wireless (he built a tower on his land) because he couldn't DSL/Cable for high speed and he needed it. So he had them pipe T1 to his place and put up a tower and provide ISP service to neighbors offset the cost. The trunks are the issue. The people behind this are MCI, BellSouth, AT&T etc who own the trunks. They do have a point -- the VoIP is going to eat their regular trunk business (which is where their bread and butter has been) in the couple of years. And I still say that the content providers can (if they're brave enough to do it) cause far more havoc for the trunk owners than vice versa. I have switched services (from Cablevision to DSL) because of poor access. I've got a friend that's switched twice. And with services like Gmail and others...the cost of switching (not actual dollars, but the pain involved) grows less each day. Google et. al. are worried. But I think everyone has been looking at this wrong.
Post #258,411 by bepatient 6/10/06 1:29:05 PM Reply	Last mile can be overcome access to the pipes is becoming ubiquitous...the telcos don't hold all the cards as they used to. Media companies can replace them...and are. Comcast is NOT a telco. AOL/Time Warner is NOT a telco. Between them they provide quite a bit of access. They rely on the big boys for the backbone. Even >that< isn't as much a barrier to entry as it used to be. Many here are thinking about the development of the net as it was. That is not where it is going...the players are blurring the lines between content and access...and that will continue. Net neutrality is absolutely critical to this natural evolution process. Of course...this is my opinion. I don't think I would have held the same opinion without the last 12 months of employment in the telecom biz, though. We get alot of "futurespeak" guys to come in...and one of them gave a presentation on the convergence of players in net space...it was eye-opening. If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #258,420 by boxley 6/10/06 7:51:33 PM Reply	Indian Guy from Atlanta? Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
Post #258,645 by bepatient 6/12/06 5:20:46 PM Reply	Nope..he's from upstate NY. Written a couple of books...runs a "consultancy". Was invited to speak not too long ago...was actually pretty good. If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #258,661 by boxley 6/12/06 6:43:35 PM Reply	must be an Industry of their own then Guy we had gave a "competetive landscape" 1 day course that reinforced some of my own thinking over the last few years. thanx, bill Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
Post #258,363 by Andrew Grygus 6/9/06 10:44:45 PM Reply	That's some powerful stuff you're smok'n there! Compared to the telecoms Google, Microsoft and eBay are worth beans. Market capitalization is irrelevent here, it is as the morning fog - ready to be burned off in a moment. What does Microsoft have? Some poorly written and rapidly aging code that'll fit on a couple dozen CDs, and a few buildings. Google and eBay have far less. What do the telecoms have? They have wire, fiber, poles, conduits, vaults, tunnels, switches, and other infrastructure worth more than the GNP of most countries. They have control of a sufficient number of legislators and an ironclad back-room monopoly. So Microsoft's going to hang their fiber on who's poles, pass it through who's vaults, tunnels and conduits? Yeah, sure. Google, Microsoft and eBay - their life blood flows throught the telecoms at the pleasure of the telecoms. There is no contest here. [link\|http://www.aaxnet.com\|AAx]
Post #258,412 by jake123 6/10/06 2:32:47 PM Reply	See, that's why we have the CRTC up here They are the regulatory body that deals with that sort of stuff. I know they've smacked BellNexxia around a few times for shenanigans... and their word is literally law in the business. So far, they've done a pretty good job. Was talking to a reactionary about gov reg up here not too long ago (family member) and I pointed out to him that without the CRTC forcing the telco's to split off wire provision from ISP service and offer it to all (including themselves) at identical rates, my cousin's ISP would have folded years ago as Bell leveraged their monopoly on the last mile to shut out anyone else out of broadband access over their wire. I just wish they would take a similar approach to the cable companies, but they don't have monopoly status in television provision like Bell does in phone provision, so they get treated differently. --\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------

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