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New Best I can do on short notice
[link|http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=4927|http://www.americanc...sp?articleID=4927]

I don't know what legal residents cost. However I do know that illegal immigrants make up much more than 50% of uninsured hospital visits and law enforcement problems. And those two items take a disproportionate amount out of the public purse.

Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
New Combinations
Estimates say that costs ([link|http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=7158|http://www.americanc...sp?articleID=7158]) at low end are over $1 billion for LA. Estimates also show that they pay no taxes to offset...and nearly half the workforce in some sectors of the LA economy are paid under the table...net cost in lost revenue at 1B plus.

Los Angeles' entire city budget is 5.4B.

Simple math gets you clost to 40% impact to LA.

Its NOT hard to understand how things like Prop187 get legs with the folks in California...and these folks are LIBERALS by and large that want these people cut off and sent home.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New I already see some problems.
I'm by no means an expert on this stuff, but I've been interested in demographics and surveys since college.

I have no doubt that in areas with high concentrations of illegal aliens, they're more likely to make up a majority of uninsured hospital visits. Similarly, increased crime wouldn't be unexpected. But I'd be very surprised if those things could be generalized to the whole of southern California or to the whole of government services.

The Tony Dolz article you found cites the Center for Immigration Studies for his $10B cost to the Federal government in services to illegals. The relevant paper there seems to be [link|http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscal.html|The High Cost of Cheap Labor]. Among other [link|http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalmethods.html#Data|assumptions] it uses are:

Data Source. This report relies on the March 2003 Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by the U.S. Census Bureau. The March data, also called the Annual Social and Economic Supplement, includes an extra-large sample of minorities and is considered one of the best sources of information on the foreign-born.4 The foreign-born are defined as persons living in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth.5 For the purposes of this report, foreign-born and immigrant are used synonymously. The Survey includes most legal immigrants and is thought to capture roughly 90 percent of the illegal alien population. We use the term illegal alien or illegal immigrant to mean those who responded to the survey who are in the United States without authorization. All other foreign-born persons are referred to as legal immigrants, including those with Permanent Residence, those who are naturalized American citizens, and those living in the United States on long-term temporary visas, mainly guest workers and foreign students.

[...]

Identifying Illegal Aliens. The CPS does not ask the foreign-born if they are legal residents of the United States. However, the Urban Institute, the former INS, and the Census Bureau have used socio-demographic characteristics in the data to estimate the size of the illegal population. To determine who are legal and illegal immigrants in the survey, this report uses citizenship status, year of arrival in the United States, age, country of birth, educational attainment, sex, receipt of welfare programs, receipt of Social Security, veteran status, and marital status. We use these variables to assign probabilities to each respondent. Those individuals who have a cumulative probability of one or higher are assumed to be illegal aliens. The probabilities are assigned so that both the total number of illegal aliens and the characteristics of the illegal population closely match other research in the field, particularly the estimates developed by the Urban Institute.

This method is based on some well-established facts about the characteristics of the illegal population. For example, it is well known that illegals are disproportionately male, unmarried, under age 40, have few years of schooling, etc. Thus, we assign probabilities to these and other factors in order to select the likely illegal population. In some cases we assume that there is no probability that an individual is an illegal alien. If an individual reports that he is U.S.-born or a naturalized citizen of the United States, then he is assumed not to be an illegal alien. Someone who reports that he is veteran or receives veteran benefits is also assumed not to be an illegal alien. Those individuals who report that they personally receive Social Security benefits, cash assistance under Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Security benefits (SSI), or who are enrolled in Medicaid are also assumed not to be illegal aliens. However, other members of a household headed by an illegal alien can receive these programs, mostly the U.S.-born children of illegals. It is worth noting that our findings show that only a tiny fraction of households headed by illegals receive cash welfare programs or Social Security benefits. However, a large share of children in illegal alien households use the school lunch program or are enrolled in Medicaid. Our methodology allows for such a possibility.

We estimate that there were 8.7 million illegal aliens in the March 2003 CPS. It must be remembered that this estimate only includes illegal aliens captured by the March CPS, not those missed by the survey.10 By design this estimate is very similar to those prepared by the Census Bureau, the former Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), and the Urban Institute.11 Although it should be obvious that there is no definitive means of determining whether a respondent in the survey is an illegal alien, the findings in this study are consistent with previous research. For example, the Urban Institute estimated that in 2002 Mexicans accounted for 57 percent of the illegal population; our method finds 58 percent in 2003. Using 2003 data, we estimate that 88 percent of illegals arrived after 1990; the Urban Institute estimated 85 percent using 2002 data.12 Our results also produce estimates that are similar in other areas, such as age and workforce participation.

[...]

And these figures are for all immigrants, not specially for the one-fourth of the foreign-born who are illegal aliens.


Emphasis added.

They think the CPS gets 90% of illegal aliens, bringing the total to 9.7 M by March 2003. Assuming an increase of 500k per year (as another article I skimmed claims) would give 11 M in March 2006. That's in the same range bandied about recently - but it's still just an estimate (with unknown error bars). But note that they massage their estimates to get them to agree with other estimates. We don't know if any of them are any good from the information available.

If they know that illegal immigrants are disproportinately single men under 40, they wouldn't be putting much stress on the school system or the hospitals (compared to familes with young children or the sick, frail and elderly), would they?

At least in this paper, I would have to say that it's built on a house of cards. They don't know how many illegals there are, they don't know how much they're using in public services, and they don't know how similar illegal immigrants are to the estimated 3/4 of the foreign born who are legal immigrants. Hopitals and police departments can certainly have an idea of how illegals are using their services. But I don't think that can be translated to similar usage in other government services.

Illegal immigration is a problem that needs to be addressed. But I don't think this article is better than guesswork at this point. Throwing $10B numbers around is just scaremongering, IMHO.

My $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.
New You really need to spend some time in the southwest
It really does change perspective when you see it up close.

I could go for a very long time in Philly without worrying about the impact of illegal immigration. There's illegals here, I know it. But in the numbers around here, its not a huge impact.

In LA its a completely different story.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New ;-)
[link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/29/AR2005092902264_pf.html|Washington Post]:

Virginia is struggling with cultural changes brought on by a rise in legal and illegal immigration over the past decade.

The state is home to more than 200,000 illegal immigrants, up 50,000 from 1996, according to a study for the Pew Hispanic Center. The number of Virginians born outside the United States has grown from 311,809 in 1990 to 570,279 in 2000, according to the census.

A Washington Post poll taken Sept. 6 through Sept.9 showed that in Virginia, 33 percent of registered voters think "the growing number of immigrants" has been bad for their communities, compared with 21 percent who believe it is good.

"Virginia has definitely emerged as a new gateway state, and it looks like the politics of immigration there are starting to resemble what we've seen in California or Arizona," said Michael Fix of the Migration Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Washington that tracks immigration law. "The big political and legal question that is taking shape right now is, where will we draw the lines on this issue?


I don't know how many are illegal, but just about everyone doing lawn-service work, home construction and remodeling, and similar jobs around here seems to be Hispanic. Many fast-food restaurants (Wendy's, McDonalds, etc.) have nearly exclusively Spanish-speaking staff. Most of the big-box stores in the area have bilingual signs. I've noticed the changes.

Cheers,
Scott.
New wow...200k in the whole state!
Mike Fix is off his rocker. Virginia isn't even close to resembling LA. He needs to climb out of that think tank and fly to LA with you :-)
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New Um, they're not all in Norton, VA. 6 kB .imgs
[image|http://www.fairus.org/images/content/pagebuilder/19217.gif|0|Fairfax County Population|236|294][image|http://www.fairus.org/images/content/pagebuilder/19214.gif|0|Immigrant Share of Population|238|239]

[link|http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/demogrph/pdf/spanish.pdf|Fairfax County Information on Spanish Speaking Residents] (2 page .pdf):

Profile of Spanish Speaking Parents and Guardians
Citizenship

.......................Men ................Women
Citizen ..............20.7% ...............23.3%
Desire Citizenship ...72.0% ...............72.1%
Don't Want Citizenship 7.3% ................4.6%

[...]

Educational Attainment
....................Men .... Women
Less Than 7th Grade 28.2% .. 24.7%
7th to 12th Grade ..23.3% ...24.3%
HS Degree or GED ...17.8% ...23.5%
Some College .......10.4% ....8.9%
Associate Degree ....7.4% ....4.9%
BS Degree ...........5.9% ....8.5%
Post Graduate .......5.0% ....1.6%
Other ...............2.0% ....3.6%

Years in United States
...................Men .... Women
Fewer Than 5 Years 7.2% ....12.2%
5 To 9 Years .....16.9% ....23.3%
10 to 14 Years ...46.2% ....41.6%
15 Years or More .29.7% ....22.9%

Years in Fairfax County
....................Men ....Women
Fewer Than 5 Years 25.0% ...28.2%
5 To 9 Years ......25.5% ...31.4%
10 to 14 Years ....35.7% ...29.4%
15 Years or More ..13.8% ...11.0%


The big increase in Hispanics in my county has happened in the last 15 years. It shows every sign of increasing. Los Angeles, OTOH, has had residents of Mexican and Central American origin for a few hundred years...

There are similar trends in Loudon, Arlington, Prince William and other northern Virginia counties. They're attracted by the vibrant economy (unemployment in Fairfax is [link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/03/AR2006040301678.html|2.1%] and was below 1% at times during the .com boom.) Fix is just ahead of the wave. :-)

Cheers,
Scott.
New Do they hang on the corner waiting for work? ;-)
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New As Bill says, come to LA
I'll bet that you'll realize quickly that what you're seeing bears no comparison to what I see.

Go visit an emergency room for an even bigger comparison.

Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
New You need to understand Hispanic culture
While most hispanics may be male, the women have kids like they vote in Chicago: early and often.

Some of that tendency is due to many of them being Catholic. Some of that is due to poor education. Some is due to poverty. Some is due to coming from countries where that is just accepted.

But the result is that a lot of Hispanics have or are generating families, and therefore they have medical needs. Which get addressed in emergency rooms at hospitals. Which is about the most expensive way it could be addressed.

I've seen people seriously suggest that universal health care could pay for itself in California simply by the fact that illegal aliens would get their health care more cheaply. It wouldn't hurt that that more of them would also get basic preventive health care.

Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
     Dear Presidente Vincente Fox - (lincoln) - (36)
         While you're at it - (tuberculosis) - (1)
             s/waterfront/any/g -NT - (boxley)
         Dear Americans - (pwhysall) - (33)
             You do realize that you're talking to two separate groups... - (inthane-chan) - (9)
                 Let the poor idiots keep the rich bastards in check, then. - (CRConrad) - (8)
                     This is the country that elected Bush. Twice. - (ben_tilly)
                     Problem is that the poor idiots are, well ... idiots -NT - (drewk) - (1)
                         The average American can't make the connection . . . - (Andrew Grygus)
                     It's obvious you don't know your Adams... -NT - (inthane-chan) - (1)
                         And you don't even know what it is you don't know? - (CRConrad)
                     "Illitterate"? - (pwhysall) - (2)
                         That the best you can do? -NT - (CRConrad) - (1)
                             I don't care about the rest. -NT - (pwhysall)
             I'll take a low-paying job - (lincoln) - (6)
                 Bullshit - (Arkadiy) - (5)
                     Lest we forget... - (imqwerky)
                     Why should I lower myself to their level? - (lincoln) - (3)
                         I'll call all of that fair if... - (ben_tilly) - (2)
                             Doesn't matter if I think it's fair - (lincoln) - (1)
                                 It's been happening for over a century - (ben_tilly)
             Dear Brit - (bepatient) - (14)
                 Yeah, right...And they each get a free house and a free car! - (CRConrad) - (13)
                     I don't think you quite get it. - (bepatient) - (12)
                         Linky? - (Another Scott) - (10)
                             Best I can do on short notice - (ben_tilly) - (9)
                                 Combinations - (bepatient)
                                 I already see some problems. - (Another Scott) - (7)
                                     You really need to spend some time in the southwest - (bepatient) - (5)
                                         ;-) - (Another Scott) - (4)
                                             wow...200k in the whole state! - (bepatient) - (2)
                                                 Um, they're not all in Norton, VA. 6 kB .imgs - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                                     Do they hang on the corner waiting for work? ;-) -NT - (bepatient)
                                             As Bill says, come to LA - (ben_tilly)
                                     You need to understand Hispanic culture - (ben_tilly)
                         It's an instance of a Western Society problem. - (static)
             pick your own fuckin cockles -NT - (boxley)

This is immediately dreadful.
77 ms