Al Qaeda didn't need the excuse of Iraq to attack the UK. They could have used Afghanistan as an excuse (the UK has a large presence there as well).

If you haven't already, take a look at the translated [link|http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/aqmanual.pdf|al Qaeda training manual] at the FAS site. (140 page .pdf):

[p.5]
In the name of Allah, the merciful and compassionate

PRESENTATION

To those champions who avowed the truth day and night ... ... And wrote with their blood and sufferings these phrases ...- *- The confrontation that we are calling for with the apostate regimes does not know Socratic debates ..., Platonic ideals ..., nor Aristotelian diplomacy. But it knows the dialogue of bullets, the ideals of assassination, bombing, and destruction, and the diplomacy of the cannon and machine-gun.
*** ...

Islamic governments have never and will never be established through peaceful solutions and cooperative councils. They are established as they [always] have been -- -
by pen and gun

by word and bullet

by tongue and teeth

[...]

[p.9]

After the fall of our orthodox caliphates on March 3 , 1924 and after expelling the colonialists, our Islamic nation was afflicted with apostate rulers who took over in the Moslem nation. These rulers turned out to be more infidel and criminal than the colonialists themselves. Moslems have endured all kinds of harm, oppression, and torture at their hands.

[...]

Colonialism and its followers, the apostate rulers, then started to openly erect crusader centers, societies, and organizations like Masonic Lodges, Lions and Rotary clubs, and foreign schools. They aimed at producing a wasted generation that pursued everything that is western and produced rulers, ministers, leaders, physicians, engineers, businessmen, politicians, journalists, and information specialists. [Koranic verse:] "And Allah's enemies plotted and planned, and Allah too planned, and the best of planners is Allah."

[p.10]
The young men returning to Allah realized that Islam is not just performing rituals but a complete system: Religion and government, worship and Jihad [holy warl, ethics and dealing with people, and the Koran and sword. The bitter situation that the nation has reached is a result of its divergence from Allah's course and his righteous law for all places and times. That [bitter situation] came about as a result of its children's love for the world, their loathing of death, and their abandonment of Jihad [holy warl.

Unbelief is still the same. It pushed Abou Jahl- may Allah curse him - and-Kureish's valiant infidels to battle the-prophet - God bless and keep him - and to torture his companions - may Allah's grace be on them. It is the same unbelief that drove Sadat, Hosni Mubarak, Gadhafi, Hafez Assad, Saleh, Fahed - Allah's curse be upon the non-believing leaders - and all the apostate Arab rulers to torture, kill, imprison, and torment Moslems. . -

[Hmm. I wonder why Saddam isn't mentioned.]

These young men realized that an Islamic government would never be established except by the bomb and rifle. Islam does not coincide or make a truce with unbelief, but rather confronts it.

The confrontation that Islam calls for with these godless and apostate regimes,. does not know Socratic debates, Platonic ideals nor Aristotelian diplomacy. But it knows the dialogue of bullets, the ideals of assassination, bombing, and destruction, and the diplomacy of the cannon and machine-gun.

[p.14]

[...]
The main mission for which the Military Organization is responsible is:

The overthrow of the godless regimes and their replacement with an Islamic regime. Other missions consist of the following:
1. Gathering information about the enemy, the land, the installations, and the neighbors.
2. Kidnaping enemy personnel, documents, secrets, and arms.
3 . Assassinating enemy personnel as well as foreign tourists.
4. Freeing the brothers who are captured by the enemy.
5. Spreading rumors and writing statements that instigate people against the enemy.
6. Blasting and destroying the places of amusement, immorality, and sin; not a vital target.
7 . Blasting and destroying the embassies and attacking vital economic centers.
8. Blasting and destroying bridges leading into and out of the cities.

And so on.

They want all Moslems to be ruled by a Caliphate that is established by terror and force of arms. Since many non-Arab countries have large Moslem populations (e.g. the US has ~ 3 M, the UK has ~ 1.6 M, according to the CIA Factbook), that leads to an obvious conclusion that they want a world-wide Caliphate. That is obviously unacceptable.

One could say that, well, this is just a manual for attacking governments of countries that were previously part of the Ottoman Empire. But that's clearly not the case. Al Qaeda was attacking the US and other governments that supported middle-east countries, using these techniques, in the [link|http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/ladin.htm|early 1990s]. It continues to do so.

Yes, al Qaeda wants to take advantage of popular misgivings and anger about Iraq to attempt to get governments to change their policies. (Consider Spain after the Madrid bombing.) But if the UK wasn't in Iraq, and if instead of invading Iraq the US had done more in Afghanistan, well I don't think that would change al Qaeda's MO one bit. They are at war with the modern world and will be for a long time. Since al Qaeda is scattered throughout the globe, even if bin Laden and his henchmen had been captured in 2001 or 2002, I don't think it would make much of a difference to the true-believers who are members.

That does not mean, of course, that we shouldn't redouble our efforts to capture or kill them. Of course, we should as part of a larger effort to win hearts and minds.

It's just that I believe that attacks by al Qaeda won't end until either 1) the west completely withdraws from the middle east and all other predominantly Moslem countries and cedes them to the terrorists, or 2) the world somehow finds a way to defeat extremists like them. 1) is a non-starter. 2) implies a very long and costly struggle. As such, I expect attacks like these, every year or 18 months or so, for a long time to come. With luck, we'll find a way to stop them in most cases.

My $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.