Let's be fair, speaking as a pseudo-economist myself.

There are a number of different facets to economics. Among them are the predictive indicators. You'll hear these described in business news as The Conference Board's [link|http://www.conference-board.org/products/lei1.cfm|index of leading economic indicators]. This includes consumer confidence, purchasing and hiring plans. The idea is that these metrics indicate probable directions of future economic movement. There are also coincident indicators (what's happening now) and lagging indicators (where was the economy). For more information, see the Conference Board's [link|http://www.conference-board.org/whoweare/FAQ.cfm|FAQ] and [link|http://www.globalindicators.org/|business cycle indicators]. These measures allow a prediction of where things are heading -- calling a race, if you will.

What you're seeing right now is the official recordkeeping. This is the final (well, except for adjustments) measure of how well the economy actually performed. It's equivalent to the official timekeeper's report at a race. Most economic data has significant reporting lags (in health care data analysis, we deal with INBRs -- incurred but not reported claims, with a lag of up to three months before final settling of a claim). Most data are reported on a monthly basis with adjustments. So, we're now getting data for Q32001.

You'll notice the announcement was "it's official", not "it's a surprise". The results were expected (predicted) by available data. They've now been confirmed.