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New Insight? Hoax? (Definitely long)
CLASSMATES:

Many of you are probably not aware that I was one of the last American citizens to have spent a great deal of time in Afghanistan. I was first there in 1993, providing relief and assistance to refugees along the Tajik border, and in this capacity have traveled all along the border region between the two countries.

In 1998 and 1999, I was the Deputy Program Manager for the UN's mine action program in Afghanistan. This program is the largest civilian employer in the country with over 5,000 persons clearing mines and UXO. In this later capacity, I was somewhat ironically engaged in a "Holy War," as decreed by the Taliban, against the evil of landmines; and by a special proclamation of Mullah Omar, all those who might have died in this effort were considered to be "martyrs" -- even an "infidel" like myself.

The mine action program is the most respected relief effort in the country, and because of this I had the opportunity to travel extensively without too much interference or restriction. I still have extensive contacts in the area and among the Afghan community and read a great deal on the subject.

I had wanted to write earlier and share some of my perspectives, but quite frankly, I have been a bit too popular in DC this past week and have not had time. Dr. Tony Kern's comments were excellent and I would like to use them as a basis for sharing some observations.

First, he is absolutely correct. This war is about will, resolve and character. I want to touch on that later, but first I want to share some comments about our "enemy."

Our enemy is not the people of Afghanistan. The country is devastated beyond what most of us can imagine. The vast majority of the people live day-to-day, hand-to-mouth in abject conditions of poverty, misery, and deprivation. Less than 30% of the men are literate, the women even less. The country is exhausted, and desperately wants something like peace. They know very little of the world at large, and have no access to information or knowledge that would counter what they are being told by the Taliban. They have nothing left, nothing that is except for their pride.

Who is our enemy? Well, our enemy is a group of non-Afghans, often referred to by the Afghans as "Arabs" and a fanatical group of religious leaders and their military cohort, the Taliban. The non-Afghan contingent came from all over the Islamic world to fight in the war against the Russians. Many came using a covert network created with assistance by our own government.

OBL (as Osama bin Laden was referred to by us in the country at the time) restored this network to bring in more fighters, this time to support the Taliban in their civil war against the former Mujehdeen. Over time, this military support along with financial support has allowed OBL and his "Arabs" to co-opt significant government activities and leaders. OBL is the "inspector general" of Taliban armed forces; his bodyguards protect senior Talib leaders and he has built a system of deep bunkers for the Taliban, which were designed to withstand cruise missile strikes (uhm, where did he learn to do that?). His forces basically rule the southern city of Kandahar.

This high-profile presence of OBL and his "Arabs" has, in the last 2 years or so, started to generate a great deal of resentment on the part of the local Afghans. At the same time, the legitimacy of the Taliban regime has started to decrease as it has failed to end the war, as local humanitarian conditions have worsened, and as "cultural" restrictions have become even harsher.

It is my assessment that most Afghans no longer support the Taliban. Indeed the Taliban have recently had a very difficult time getting recruits for their forces and have had to rely more and more on non-Afghans, either from Pushtun tribes in Pakistan or from OBL. OBL and the Taliban, absent any US action, were probably on their way to sharing the same fate that all other outsiders and outside doctrines have experienced in Afghanistan -- defeat and dismemberment.

During the Afghan war with the Soviets, much attention was paid to the martial prowess of the Afghans. We were all at West Point at the time, and most of us had high-minded idealistic thoughts about how we would all want to go help the brave "freedom fighters" in their struggle against the Soviets.

Those concepts were naive to the extreme. The Afghans, while never conquered as a nation, are not invincible in battle. A "good" Afghan battle is one that makes a lot of noise and light. Basic military skills are rudimentary and clouded by cultural constraints that no matter what, a warrior should never lose his honor. Indeed, firing from the prone is considered distasteful (but still done).

Traditionally, the Afghan order of battle is very feudal in nature, with fighters owing allegiance to a "commander," and this person owing allegiance upwards and so on and so on. Often such allegiance is secured by payment. And while the Taliban forces have changed this somewhat, many of the units in the Taliban army are there because they are being paid to be there. All such groups have very strong loyalties along ethnic and tribal lines.

Again, the concept of having a place of "honor" and "respect" is of paramount importance and blood feuds between families and tribes can last for generations over a perceived or actual slight. That is one reason why there were 7 groups of Mujehdeen fighting the Russians. It is a very difficult task to form and keep united a large bunch of Afghans into a military formation. The "real" stories that have come out of the war against the Soviets are very enlightening and a lot different from our fantastic visions as cadets.

When the first batch of Stingers came in and were given to one Mujehdeen group, another group -- supposedly on the same side -- attacked the first group and stole the Stingers, not so much because they wanted to use them, but because having them was a matter of prestige.

Many larger coordinated attacks that advisers tried to conduct failed when all the various Afghan fighting groups would give up their assigned tasks (such as blocking or overwatch) and instead would join the assault group in order to seek glory.

In comparison to Vietnam, the intensity of combat and the rate of fatalities were lower for all involved.

As you can tell from above, it is my assessment that these guys are not THAT good in a purely military sense and the "Arabs" probably even less so than the Afghans. So why is it that they have never been conquered? It goes back to Dr. Kern's point about will.

During their history, the only events that have managed to form any semblance of unity among the Afghans, is the desire to fight foreign invaders. And in doing this, the Afghans have been fanatical. The Afghans' greatest military strength is the ability to endure hardships that would, in all probability, kill most Americans and enervate the resolve of all but the most elite military units.

The physical difficulties of fighting in Afghanistan, the terrain, the weather, and the harshness are all weapons that our enemies will use to their advantage and use well. (NOTE: For you military planner types and armchair generals: around November 1st, most road movement is impossible, in part because all the roads used by the Russians have been destroyed and air movement will be problematic at best). Also, those fighting us are not afraid to fight. OBL and others do not think the US has the will or the stomach for a fight. Indeed after the absolutely inane missile strikes of 1998, the overwhelming consensus was that we were cowards who would not risk one life in face-to-face combat.

Rather than demonstrating our might and acting as a deterrent, that action and others of the not so recent past, have reinforced the perception that the US does not have any "will" and that we are morally and spiritually corrupt.

Our challenge is to play to the weaknesses of our enemy, notably their propensity for internal struggles, the distrust between the extremists/Arabs and the majority of Afghans, their limited ability to fight coordinated battles, and their lack of external support. More importantly through is that we have to take steps not to play to their strengths, which would be to unite the entire population against us by increasing their suffering or killing innocents, to get bogged down trying to hold terrain, or to get into a battle of attrition chasing up and down mountain valleys.

I have been asked how I would fight the war. This is a big question and well beyond my pay grade or expertise. And while I do not want to second guess current plans or start an academic debate, I would share the following from what I know about Afghanistan and the Afghans.

First, I would give the Northern Alliance a big wad of cash so that they can buy off a chunk of the Taliban army before winter.

Second, also with this cash, I would pay some guys to kill some of the Taliban leadership, making it look like an inside job to spread distrust and build on existing discord.

Third I would support the Northern alliance with military assets, but not take it over or adopt so high a profile as to undermine its legitimacy in the eyes of most Afghans.

Fourth would be to give massive amounts of humanitarian aid and assistance to the Afghans in Pakistan in order to demonstrate our goodwill and to give these guys
a reason to live rather than the choice between dying of starvation or dying fighting the "infidel."

Fifth, start a series of public works projects in areas of the country not under Taliban control (these are much more than the press reports) again to demonstrate goodwill and that improvements come with peace.

Sixth, I would consider very carefully putting any female service members into Afghanistan proper -- sorry to the females of our class but within that culture a man who allows a women to fight for him has zero respect, and we will need respect to gain the cooperation of Afghan allies. No Afghan will work with a man who fights with women.

I would hold off from doing anything too dramatic in the new term, keeping a low level of covert action and pressure up over the winter, allowing this pressure to force open the fissions around the Taliban that were already developing -- expect that they will quickly turn on themselves and on OBL.

We can pick up the pieces next summer, or the summer after.

When we do "pick up" the pieces, I would make sure that we do so on the ground, "man to man."

While I would never want to advocate American causalities, it is essential that we communicate to OBL and all others watching that we can and will "engage and destroy the enemy in close combat." As mentioned above, we should not try to gain or hold terrain, but Infantry operations against the enemy are essential. There can be no excuses after the defeat or lingering doubts in the minds of our enemies regarding American resolve and nothing, nothing will communicate this except for ground combat.

And once this is all over, unlike in 1989, the US must provide continued long-term economic assistance to rebuild the country.

While I have written too much already, I think it is also important to share a few things on the subject of brutality. Our opponents will not abide by the Geneva conventions. There will be no prisoners unless there is a chance that they can be ransomed or made part of a local prisoner exchange.

During the war with the Soviets, videotapes were made of communist prisoners having their throats slit. Indeed, there did exist a "trade" in prisoners so that souvenir videos could be made by outsiders to take home with them.

This practice has spread to the Philippines, Bosnia, and Chechnya where similar videos are being made today and can be found on the web for those so inclined. We can expect our soldiers to be treated the same way. Sometime during this war I expect that we will see videos of US prisoners having their heads cut off.

Our enemies will do this not only to demonstrate their "strength" to their followers, but also to cause us to overreact, to seek wholesale revenge against civilian populations, and to turn this into the world-wide religious war that they desperately want.

This will be a test of our will and of our character. (For further collaboration of this type of activity please read Kipling).

This will not be a pretty war; it will be a war of wills, of resolve and somewhat conversely of compassion and of a character. Towards our enemies, we must show a level of ruthlessness that has not been part of our military character for a long time. But to those who are not our enemies we must show a level of compassion probably unheard of during war. We should do this not for humanitarian reasons, even though there are many, but for shrewd military logic.

For anyone who is still reading this way too long note, thanks for your patience. I will try to answer any questions that may arise in a more concise manner.

Thanks, Richard Kidd
New Why hoax?
[link|http://www.vvaf.org/about/kidd.shtml|brief bio]

Seems a rather sane, informed analysis to me. Of course others' *actual experience* could only help refine the many ways we might find next, to avoid the strong temptation to act like impatient vengeance-crazed assholes.

What bothers me is - would rather hear simply that, some folk in DC had heeded some good advice from a 'certain Murican'. This in preference to seeing his rather specific hints now out there, for all to take into account..

{sigh} How do you indicate good ideas w/o ... making them thus, less effective? Still, interesting critique of their (and our) weaknesses - to read. Even if I'd rather not have heard..


A.
New Re: *no* hoax - highly accurate & informative - heres more .

I have an interview with a British SAS (Secret Air Services) soldier who went to Afghanistan 20 years ago to help the Mujahedeen in their war against USSR - he published a book called

"Jihad: The secret war in Afghanistan" By Tom Carew (an alias)
- here is the Amazon link to the book:- [link|http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1840183268/qid=1002167175/sr=2-1/104-8853006-4424736|Jihad: The Secret War etc:]

This interview appeared in today's South China Morning Post but as with other really good material, is not at their on-line site (for me to copy here).

Anyway some key points this ex SAS guy makes include ....

- That the Afghans are not good tactical fighters (this is a myth) - just able to endure incredible hardships and are fanatical
- That the British Govt baulked at providing training in urban terrorism to the Mujahedeen (for security reasons) but the US CIA had no such worries & now these guerillas are using the very tactics the CIA taught them, on the US (he argues that the US didn't have a terrorist problem at home at that time & thus weren't concerned
- The Afghans (as per the orinial item posted here) are very much glory seekers and more likely to abandon strategic positions in a battle just for the glory of joining the main assault
- The Afghans are likely to continue inter-tribal warfare no matter who rules the country
- The CIA knew that the Mujahedin were using opium to finance their war and silenced anyone who reported that it was happening
- He says that it is next to impossible to infiltrate the mujahedeen
- He argues that OBL is actually in Pakistan as Afghanistan is in such a mess from destroyed infrastructure & the drought, & that the only way OBL can keep in contact with how things are developing is by being hidden in Pakistan. He says it is inconcievable to him that OBL is in a mountain lair near Kandahar. He comments that one only has to look at how well presented OBL is to know he is not hiding in caves in Afghanistan (he (Carew) hid in caves etc: for some years)
- He also says he had heard of OBL but only as a bit player in the war against USSR & any stories of OBL being a 'heroic fighter' don't stack up. He pointed out that even in newsclips, OBL is seen shooting a right-handed Kalashnikov left handed (OBL is left handed) & this meant that the spent cases were flying into his face and that anyone who had been in serious combat wouldn't do that
- He makes the case that OBL was controlling propaganda to the many volunteers who went to Afghanistan to fight & that OBL is a misfit who lied to these people to convince them that US was really at war with Islam & if you hera this 20 times a day you start to believe it
- He also says that the Taliban & Bin Laden are the same

Cheers

Doug Marker

-







New Re: correction - misquoted Carew re word fanatical ...


He said that the mujahedeen he fought with were *not* fanatical (as I had quoted). He was with the Hezb-e-islami who belonged to a leader called Hekmatyar. His comment was that them men he fought with were not fanatics but faith always came 1st and foremost.

He said he had a letter of into from Hekmatyar & that if he had ever fallen into the hands of some other tribes, that letter could have got him into deep trouble.

Another quote was that usually when they went to prayer they would pile their weapons shoes & gear in one big heap. He taught them to keep each rifle, shoes & gear apart & close to their prayer mat so that if attacked they could quickly respond. They saw the logic in it so did it.

Doug M

New Why hoax?
Because I'm not sure he actually wrote it. My source of this is, imo, unreliable. However, I liked the writing and found value in the analysis. So, I present it and discredit it. :-)

If you can tie it back to the Kidd better, let me know. I got it in an email from a friend.
New in the main "correct" but I differ on a few points
Ability to use weapons.
In 1973 Saw an older feller buy a new to him rifle and saw him test it on an old enemy who was travelling a long distance down as well at about 300 meters away. Head shot Oswald would be proud of. The greatest Gunsmiths in the world are in Peshawar currently Pakistan but not differentiated by the locals with Afghanistan. If I got a Latest model Glock, took it there and asked for copies they would be ready in days.
Afghan women would prolly be safe in non combatant roles as medics, reloaders and couriers. The Afridi tribes are larger than the Pushtun and meaner(wilder) by far. This is a tribal land with an artificial border.(nothing new here.)The only thing more fun to an Afghan is to smile, take your money then screw you over royally. They do have a very straight sense of honor, the deal you make is good but beware the wording of the deal you make.
Otherwise his experiences are sound observations.
thanx,
bill

why did god give us a talleywhacker and a trigger finger if he didnt want us to use them?
Randy Wayne White
New Re: Tom Carew writes about how dumb they could be


They might be good shots but as he pointed out, they are lousey at planning and tactics because of the nature of their tribalism - they all want glory & few are (were) willing to adopt tactical positions if it meant missing out in any way.

Some examples he gives ...

- He feared that he would be caught or killed one day because his charges would all run into the battle & leave him, instead of staying their ground and following a plan

- Early in the war the russians used to send in an older heavily armed helicopter to draw the Mujahedeen fire and then pick them off in the open

- That fighting among themselves was one of the biggest problems he had to deal with in moulding them into fighting units

etc: etc: etc:

Cheers

Doug

New Re: Very brief editorial summary of Tom Carew book
Book Description
A British soldier\ufffds year with the Afghan Mujahideen \ufffd a fast-paced, high-tension account of combat, espionage, and Cold-War adventure.

From the Publisher
In 1980, Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher had taken over the leadership of the West, and the Soviets had invaded Afghanistan \ufffd the most crucial battle of the Cold War was about to begin. In the high mountain passes of the northwest frontier and the Hindu Kush, the CIA and Britain\ufffds MI6 saw an opportunity to bring the mighty Soviet army to its knees. Their weapon: the Islamic guerrillas of the Afghan Mujahideen. The first Western agent to link up with the Mujahideen was Tom Carew, a young SAS soldier with a talent for \ufffdblack bag\ufffd covert operations. Over a period of a year, Carew led a series of extraordinary reconnaissance missions inside Afghanistan; in the course of these operations, he became as close to the Mujahideen as any European infidel could. Set against the backdrop of the last truly wild and lawless country on earth, Carew\ufffds edge-of-the-seat narrative sheds new light on the Cold War and the conduct of special operations in the modern era.

New Never saw that one, will pick it up. Thanx
What is a user? You mean userid isnt the same as uid?, gid? whats that? I dont understand "ask the requestor to send a non formal email request for ftp access? whaddya mean dean?
Halp Iam drowning in Bovine Fecal Matter!!!!
Bill
     Insight? Hoax? (Definitely long) - (Simon_Jester) - (8)
         Why hoax? - (Ashton) - (3)
             Re: *no* hoax - highly accurate & informative - heres more . - (dmarker2) - (1)
                 Re: correction - misquoted Carew re word fanatical ... - (dmarker2)
             Why hoax? - (Simon_Jester)
         in the main "correct" but I differ on a few points - (boxley) - (3)
             Re: Tom Carew writes about how dumb they could be - (dmarker2) - (2)
                 Re: Very brief editorial summary of Tom Carew book - (dmarker2)
                 Never saw that one, will pick it up. Thanx -NT - (boxley)

Go back to making claims about Wookies and Endor.
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