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New Recovery takes unusual path

Some recovery.

More than 9 million Americans are looking for work. More than a million others have dropped out of the labor force. An estimated 4 million are working part time when they want a full-time job.

"With recoveries like this, who needs recessions?" said economist Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute.

[...]

A recovery is supposed to mean solid improvements across the economy -- especially healthy job growth. Not this time. This recovery has been different from every other post-recession period since the Great Depression.

The economy has shed 1 million jobs since the recovery began -- a 1.1 percent drop. Typically, a 20-month-old recovery expands the work force: by 8 percent during the 1982-84 recovery, by 5.3 percent in 1975-76. Even the original "jobless recovery" of 1991-92 saw a 0.3 percent expansion of the labor market.

[...]

Even after the recession began, the economy took a series of shocks. The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, came with the economy already six months into recession. They forever changed the outlook, layering all decisions with a veil of doubt or even fear.

Since then, there have been two wars, corporate scandals and persistently high energy prices. No one blow was devastating, but each rattled confidence, economists say.

Now, the economy has expanded for seven consecutive quarters -- while losing jobs.

Whatever the reason for that performance, the picture seems to be improving. Recent signs of stirring include a pickup in production and a modest decrease in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits.

Most economists expect the massive injections of money -- interest rate trimming, spending, tax cuts -- to eventually have the economy humming again.

But without job growth, consumer confidence and spending could wither, Bernstein said. "My fear is that once you take the intravenous feed out of the patient, he'll get sick again."

[link|http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/0803/26recover.html|link]
lincoln
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New Read a report...
That GDP is up because defense spending is way up...

[link|http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20030828/bs_nm/economy_dc|Defense Spending Boosting Economy]

However, the jobless rate barely budged, and the economists are pleased because inventory is running lean.

So they "think" that companies will hire because they will need to replenish inventories.

However, consumers appear to be holding back, still (and justifiably so).

Here's what this looks like to me:

1. Record budget deficit, Congress has to vote to override Gramm/Rudman/Hollings act, lots of defense spending without a tax base to support it.

2. Companies are running inventories lean on purpose. They're changing over to JIT manufacturing techniques from the "brains" at McKenzie, Booz, Accenture, and other consulting outfits. Companies basically want to avoid building any product until a consumer orders it. So inventories will continue to be lean and leaner. Economists are missing the boat on this one. Eventually, we'll order a car and wait 6 weeks for it to arrive.

3. Until there is job growth in the country, the tax base cannot expand. So eventually, we will have to cut the U.S. budget because there isn't a tax base to support the expenses.

4. Finally, we'll default on our baby boomer's social security right as the middle bunch retires. Hope you saved money outside of Social Security!
Expand Edited by gdaustin Aug. 28, 2003, 08:22:02 PM EDT
New not quite
A recovery is supposed to mean solid improvements across the economy -- especially healthy job growth. Not this time. This recovery has been different from every other post-recession period since the Great Depression.

Not exactly. Jobs were slow to come back after the 92 recession. However, they think the trend is that job growth is lagging more and more per recession. So, maybe the 2012 recession will not recover jobs until the recovery is over :-)

I think they should define recessions in terms of jobs, not total money supply.
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     Recovery takes unusual path - (lincoln) - (2)
         Read a report... - (gdaustin)
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