I'm beginning to think that we're going to quickly be down to 3 big companies who each have everything a big enterprise needs in computing. Let me know the combinations you think of.

Microsoft ( IIS, SQL Server, .NET/MTS, MSMQ )
IBM ( Apache, DB2, WebSphere, MQSeries )
Sun/Oracle/BEA ( iPlanet, Oracle, WebLogic, Tuxedo )

And where does that leave HP? AT&T/NEC? UniSys?

Are we really down to just 3 (two arguably) who can deliver enterprise solutions?

What if I want an HP 9000/DB2/WebLogic solution? While technically possible, will it cost too much to figure out the integration to make it worth HP, IBM, and BEA even supporting it?

I'm afraid that this downturn in the fortunes of computer software/hardware companies is going to generate just 3 viable platforms in the future. If you aren't on one of the 3 "approved" combinations, you're in trouble.

Your thoughts?

Glen Austin

It's just a

Intel/Microsoft
IBM
Sun/Oracle

world?

Maybe BEA is a loser? Again, I still ask what about HP, Compaq, Dell, Gateway, NEC, Unisys, etc?

I'm trying to glean the winners and losers out of this stock slide for the long term.

I already had BEA stock (bought 100 shares at about 3.75 on a split-adjusted basis in 1997), and have been thinking about selling it for Dell, Sun, Oracle, and a few others. I'm not in a hurry to make a huge profit, but I would like to either pay for kid's college room & board with it, or pay off my house about 10-15 years early. So I have 15-20 years to work with it. I guess I just want to find the next decade's WalMart or Microsoft.

Instead, I'll just keep working. Maybe I'll have enough credit built up by the time my kids go to college that I'll to be able to borrow for the kid's college (maybe even against the house), and then work another 30 years to pay it off ('till I'm 95 or something).

Is my cynicism showing yet?

Glen Austin