Molly Ivin's on the money once again

[link|http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/auto/epaper/editions/today/editorial_6.html|Molly's column]

This win isn't much cause for celebration
SYNDICATED COLUMNIST

Friday, May 23, 2003

Much as I hate to interrupt what is apparently a deeply felt triumphalism on the American right, now that it's over, does anyone see any reason for our having invaded Iraq?

I realize that's what we all kept trying to figure out before the invasion, but don't you think it should at least be visible in hindsight? Good thing we won the war, because the peace sure looks like a quagmire.

These are early days, certainly, to attempt a full historical evaluation. Could be a case of the forest and the trees. Perhaps we're well along the road to having everything work out magnificently, and I'm just missing it. Still, I can't see anything that's going right.

Iraq is in chaos, and apparently the only way we'll be able to stop it will be to kill a lot of Iraqis. Just what Saddam Hussein used to do. Recently, we announced we were going to shoot looters, and when that produced nightmare scenarios of children dead for stealing bread, we had to cancel that plan. Now we're going to try gun control -- that should have the enthusiastic support of the National Rifle Association. Meanwhile, the chaos in Iraq seems to be costing us whatever goodwill we earned for getting rid of Saddam, the one unmitigated good to have come from all of this.

I hate to be picky, but there are still no weapons of mass destruction. In fact, we've apparently stopped looking for them. Because Iraq never had anything to do with al Qaeda or Sept. 11 -- despite American public opinion on this issue -- it was certainly no surprise to see al Qaeda back again, with strikes in Saudi Arabia and Morocco. President Bush's announcement that we had broken up the organization seems to have been premature.

Meanwhile, one of the other sales pitches we were given was that, for reasons never explained, getting rid of Saddam would make it easier to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It's not looking promising.

Bush came out with his Road Map for Peace, and the Israelis took the first exit. Ariel Sharon, so memorably described by Bush as "a man of peace," wasted no time undercutting that proposal. The always-unhelpful Palestinian terrorists attacked, and Sharon counter-attacked and then cancelled his trip here to discuss the peace plan. The usual ugly pictures and refueled resentments ensued; the same-old, same-old of this 50-year-old cycle.

Meanwhile, Iraq looks more and more as though it will be costing us the high-end estimate of $20 billion a year, for which Iraqis have yet to appear noticeably grateful. The Shiites hate us, the Kurds are killing the Arabs and we're generally becoming about as popular over there as a prostitute trying to get into the SMU School of Theology.

If this is the situation -- and it's certainly what's being reported -- I don't get why we're still hearing Bush supporters saying, "Ha, ha, ha; we won the war." Was there anyone who said we wouldn't?

Because I am in the happy position of having predicted a short, easy war and the peace from hell, I think I'm looking like a genius prognosticator about now. I can't figure out why the Republicans are happy about this. Sure, it was a great photo-op for the president on the aircraft carrier, but if you think the American people won't notice $20 billion a year because of some nice pictures, you have sadly underestimated the common sense of this nation. I realize that what we see depends on where we stand, but there is a substantial body of emerging fact here, none of it encouraging for optimists.

We may yet see hopeful developments, but damned if I can see any cause for celebration now, or even for building a presidential re-election campaign around footage of our triumphant president flying out to the aircraft carrier. There's a real possibility that by November 2004, Republicans will want everybody to forget the war now called Dubya Dubya II. (Sorry, I don't know whom to credit for that one, but it's not original with me.)

I've got an even-money bet out that says more Americans will be killed in the peace than in the war and more Iraqis will be killed by Americans in the peace than in the war. Not the first time I've had a bet out that I hoped I'd lose.

IMHO

1) Iraq plan was always part of Repub agenda - Bush 1 put further Iraq military action on hold in order to satisfy his admin's promises to other Arab coalition partners not to continue into Iraq after Saddam (during Gulf-1). Bush 1 planned to do so later but plan got derailed when Dems won presidency. Also, it seems evident that the Bush 1 admin deliberately allowed Saddam's forces to squash the Shiite uprising as had the Shiites taken control of southern Iraq, the longer term goal of shifting military out of Saudi & into Iraq would have been compromised.

2) Part of the Iraq scenario seems always to have been to get 'control' of Iraqi oil as a counter balance to a future destablised Saudi Arabia. The fact that US recently announced it will withdraw US military from Saudi territory makes a powerful and compelling case ('US traded Saudi military presence for Iraq military presence').

3) With US in 'control' of Irai oil, US can set the price at which it buys Iraqi oil, in US $s. This guaranteed stability of price seems to have allowed US admin to drive down the US dollar without having imported Iraqi oil price go up dangerously, as the excahnge rate shifts. The lower US dollar is making US exports far more competitive and at the same time is pushing the Euro up in a way that will harm European exports to the rest of the world. (Only fools & the gullible still believe that US had genuine evidence of WMD as the excuse for invading Iraq, or that Saddam had any credible links to Al-Qaeda & 9/11).

4) As long as Al-Qaeda attacks & kills westeners, US has its 'moral justification' for military action & threats against other nations such as Syria and Iran. US is using its superpower position to aggresively stamp out centers of support for instability in ME (read as support for Al-Qaeda & Hizbollah & other Arab 'terrorist' groups (incl Hamas extremists as well)).

5) North Korea may appear to be serious but in real terms it is a side-show. Nth Korea is using the US ME activity as an opportunity to rattle chains, create scares & demand lots of assistance to quieten down (assistance is absolutely desperately needed) to keep current leaders in power.

6) PAX Americana per Repubs is with us.
- This is a good thing (apparently) if one is a Brit or an Aussie (& possibly a Spaniard).
- It is *not* a good thing if one is a 'street' Arab or Persian or Pakistani.
- but may be a bad thing if one is Asian or European :-).

Cheers

Doug Marker

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