Post #100,850
5/8/03 2:24:46 AM
8/21/07 12:39:00 PM
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Nostradamos Ben Tilly
Predicted some time ago the eventual onset of deflation when interest rates could go no lower. In this morning's Wall Street Journal, is a front page article describing how the fed is very concerned with avoiding the onset of deflation (inflation is now dangerously close to zero).
I think maybe the worst isn't quite over.
"Packed like lemmings into shiny metal boxes.
Contestants in a suicidal race."
- Synchronicity II - The Police
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Post #100,872
5/8/03 8:44:11 AM
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Which is why I want him for my secretary of state...
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Post #101,002
5/8/03 8:05:37 PM
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Uh no.. Pope of the Capitalist Reformed Church of the Army?
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Post #101,189
5/10/03 12:57:24 AM
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Yep - he's a mathematician
..even though he will not admit it.
Curious, He is so right, but seems to lack confidence.
-drl
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Post #101,192
5/10/03 1:34:39 AM
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Right *BUT* lacks confidence?
There is a strong inverse correlation between confidence and competence.
Not all that counterintuitive, really. Knowledge of the need to improve often leads to improvement. And when you know about stuff as complicted as economics, you have a really good grasp of just how many pieces there are to the puzzle, and thus what a small percentage them you have.
Those who think they know don't,and won't learn. Those who know more than most are aware of how little they know.
----
Whatever
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Post #101,404
5/12/03 7:56:20 AM
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Hungarian proverb:
The believer is happy.
The doubter is wise.
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Post #102,387
5/17/03 4:21:16 PM
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Spanish proverb:
"He who doubts nothing knows nothing."
Alex
"Passionate hatred can give meaning and purpose to an empty life." -- Eric Hoffer
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Post #102,396
5/17/03 7:09:42 PM
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George Orwell
Corrupt language -- inflated imagery, stale metaphors, meaningless words -- corrupt thought.
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Post #101,556
5/12/03 8:17:33 PM
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Well, all that I did is explained why it was a concern
And pointed out what key factors were driving out.
However anecdotal evidence from the last month suggests that things are improving short-term right now. If you can get a positive dynamic going, that could beat the obvious big negative ones. (Well, one can hope...)
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #101,636
5/13/03 10:23:27 AM
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Have you heard of the "liquidity trap"?
Way beyond my limited understanding. What I glean from it, is that, under certain conditions, monetary policy needs to encourage inflation or risk a Japan style meltdown.
Very long [link|http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/trioshrt.html|paper] by Paul Krugman from 12/99. Lots of formulas and equations that I don't even begin to understand. His english language explanations are just barely comprehensible (to me).
A google search on [link|http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=%22liquidity+trap%22|liquidity trap] gets a large number of hits.
-----------------------------------------
We have not had a Republican ex-president since Eisenhower who did not get a pardon or give one to his predecessor or staff
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Post #101,706
5/13/03 4:50:35 PM
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Isn't that the one where...
...someone keeps adding liquid to your beer and you find yourself glued to the kitchen table? --\r\n
Karsten M. Self [link|mailto:kmself@ix.netcom.com|kmself@ix.netcom.com]\r\n
[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/]\r\n
What part of "gestalt" don't you understand?\r\n
[link|http://twiki.iwethey.org/twiki/bin/view/Main/|TWikIWETHEY] -- an experiment in collective intelligence. Stupidity. Whatever.\r\n
\r\n
Keep software free. Oppose the CBDTPA. Kill S.2048 dead.\r\n[link|http://www.eff.org/alerts/20020322_eff_cbdtpa_alert.html|http://www.eff.org/alerts/20020322_eff_cbdtpa_alert.html]\r\n
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Post #101,746
5/13/03 8:19:05 PM
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OK, that's it
I have to make it to this year's Beepfest.
-----------------------------------------
We have not had a Republican ex-president since Eisenhower who did not get a pardon or give one to his predecessor or staff
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Post #101,781
5/14/03 3:13:12 AM
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Hush...
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #101,780
5/14/03 3:11:03 AM
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Yes
The short version is that if money becomes a viable investment, anything done to affect the money supply just affects how much there is to stuff away in mattresses, and does not help the economy out. In other words it is hard to increase the amount of liquid money, because your economy is absorbing it.
The paper that you link to is analyzing this classic problem (which hadn't been studied because the condition wasn't seen for many decades) and asking what it realistically takes to do something about it. In short the answer is, "A lot until after expectations have been reset. And partial efforts are worse than nothing because they create the debilitating expectation of failure."
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #101,795
5/14/03 7:51:48 AM
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Was waiting for you to explain it
And partial efforts are worse than nothing because they create the debilitating expectation of failure. That almost sounds like what the administration has been saying. ===
Implicitly condoning stupidity since 2001.
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Post #101,830
5/14/03 11:03:20 AM
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Dang, you are right...
That almost sounds like what the administration has been saying.
You make me feel like I need to wash my mouth out with soap...
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #101,833
5/14/03 11:12:49 AM
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Don't sweat it. Saying != doing.
They say a city in the desert lies/ The vanity of an ancient king/ But the city lies in broken pieces/ Where the wind howls and the vultures sing/ These are the works of man/ This is the sum of our ambition...
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Post #101,800
5/14/03 8:59:09 AM
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Thanks
Makes more sense now. You 'splain things real good.
-----------------------------------------
We have not had a Republican ex-president since Eisenhower who did not get a pardon or give one to his predecessor or staff
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Post #102,322
5/16/03 6:07:55 PM
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Maybe
however financial news reports wholesale prices dropped 1.9 percent last month.
[link|http://www.madison.com/captimes/business/stories/48873.php|http://www.madison.c...stories/48873.php]
Lets hope its just a blip.
"Packed like lemmings into shiny metal boxes.
Contestants in a suicidal race."
- Synchronicity II - The Police
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